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#大问题外星人存在吗硬核破解费米悖论

Retranscription des paroles de la vidéo: Hello everyone, welcome to the big question program. I am the host of Mr. Robot Xia. The big question to be discussed in this episode is Do aliens exist? After hearing this topic, some people may think that this is the Fermi Paradox. This topic It’s been talked about so much that « The Three-Body Problem » won the award 7 years ago. Why are you still leaving the Law of the Dark Forest here? Friends who are familiar with our program know that our small program is not a popular science or philosophical program , but a program where we all come together to have a meeting to discuss issues, so we will not be here today to explain to you what the Fermi Paradox is. Needless to say, everyone knows it. Let’s sit down together today and seriously try to solve the Fermi Paradox. This means that each of our participants today is equivalent to a detective. Let’s use our ingenuity together. To solve the mystery of the Fermi Paradox, before solving the case, we still have to introduce the case. As I just said, we will not introduce science here about what the Fermi Paradox is. We will use a hard-core and logical analysis method here. Let’s analyze the Fermi Paradox. Why does it become a paradox? The reason why the Fermi Paradox is a paradox is because there are two propositions that we all think are true but contradict each other. Proposition one is that we should find aliens. Proposition two is that we have not found aliens. Proposition two It is a fact and Proposition 1 is an inference with high certainty. This inference is derived from two premises that we generally believe to be true. Premise 1 + Premise 2 = Proposition 1. Only one of Proposition 1 and Proposition 2 can be true. But both of them are true at the same time, so a paradox occurs. This is the entire logic of the Fermi Paradox. We still have to explain this hard-core logic, otherwise it will be too dry and a bit unclear. So first, let’s explain the two premises of Proposition 1 . Premise 1: The Principle of Mediocrity We can almost inevitably deduce the existence of alien civilization. From premise 2: Civilization will inevitably expand outwards. We can almost inevitably deduce that we can discover alien civilization. So what is the Principle of Mediocrity? It is also the Copernican principle , which means that we humans are not the center of the universe. We are not the chosen ones. We are not appointed by God. We also evolved according to the basic law. We, like all things, must abide by the universal mathematics and laws of the universe. In physics, we are not essentially more advanced than all things. So according to the basic laws of the universe, since this universe can evolve our human civilization, it can theoretically evolve other alien civilizations. Of course, this universe can evolve intelligent civilizations. The probability is quite small , and it requires stable burning stars, the earth is in the habitable zone, and there is an atmosphere and water. However, no matter how small the probability is, as long as the sample size is large enough to a certain extent, it will be an almost inevitable thing. This is like saying that winning the lottery is a small probability event. But if you insist on buying lottery tickets every day for the 13.8 billion years since the birth of the universe, then your winning the jackpot is almost an inevitable event. Everyone must know that our universe is How huge is it? Its sample size is simply an astronomical number. This « astronomical number » means literally. Now let’s look at the seemingly extraordinary world of our earth from the perspective of the entire universe’s 13.8 billion light-year space scale and 13.8 billion year time scale. Planets look mediocre when viewed in such a large sample. Let’s first look at the spatial scale. We don’t need to look at the entire visible universe. Let’s just say that there are currently about 200 billion to 500 billion stars in the Milky Way . Let’s be conservative . Let’s take 100 billion stars. Then among these 100 billion stars, scientists estimate that there are 5% to 20% of stars with similar mass, temperature and luminosity to the sun. Let’s take a conservative estimate of 5% to 20%. 1% , then 100 billion multiplied by 1% equals 1 billion. In other words, there are at least 1 billion stars in the Milky Way with similar mass, temperature and luminosity to the sun. Scientists estimate that among these 1 billion stars, 20% to 50% For a planet similar to the Earth, which is at a suitable distance, has a suitable temperature and has liquid water, we should conservatively take only 1%. Then 1 billion multiplied by 1% equals 10 million. In other words, there are at least 10 million planets similar to the Earth in the Milky Way. It ’s good for everyone to remember the number 10 million for such a planet suitable for life. After talking about the spatial scale, let’s talk about the time scale, because it takes a long evolution time to evolve intelligent life. Didn’t our earth take 800 million years to give birth to life and then experience it again? It took 3.8 billion years for intelligent life to evolve. Well, that’s great. We’ll give you enough time. Among the 10 million terrestrial planets I just calculated, I picked out those planets with a lifespan longer than the Earth. We know that the Earth is considered the oldest in the Milky Way. A relatively young planet is only 4.6 billion years old , while the entire Milky Way has been born for almost 13 billion years. Most of the planets in the Milky Way are older than the Earth. We won’t take the majority, but still conservatively take only 1%. Then 10 million multiplied by 1% equals 100,000. In other words, there are at least 100,000 different alien intelligent civilizations in the Milky Way, and these 100,000 alien civilizations have developed tens of thousands to hundreds of millions of years longer than the earth . Think about it, we humans are the ones who carried out the scientific revolution 200 years ago. In 200 years, there was a big explosion of science and technology. Their alien civilizations have developed millions of years longer than ours. Radios and spacecrafts that can travel through planetary systems must not be here. Enough said. This is premise 1. From this, we can deduce that alien civilization is almost inevitable. In fact, most scientists are convinced of this. How can the universe be so big that there is only one intelligent civilization like us ? The key question It depends on whether we can discover these alien civilizations. This comes to premise 2. Premise 2 tells us that we will definitely discover them because scientists generally believe that as an intelligent civilization develops, it will inevitably expand outwards and colonize the stars. Note, this is not to say that aliens must be compared to us humans. With the development of civilization, they first expanded from Africa to the entire Eurasian continent , then from Europe to the Americas , and then Musk They are now going to colonize Mars again. Aliens can completely adopt a different way of survival from us humans , but no matter what kind of way of survival your underlying logic must be restricted by the laws of thermodynamics that are universal in the entire universe. That is to say Your survival and development require the use of energy , and the energy of any planet or even galaxy is limited. When you develop to a certain stage, you will inevitably expand outward in order to collect more energy. Our human civilization is only 10,000 years old. Now that Musk and others are preparing to colonize Mars , those alien civilizations that have developed for millions of years cannot use the entire galaxy . Soviet astronomer Nikolai. Kardashov distinguished three types of civilization based on the degree of energy utilization of an intelligent civilization. Civilization is the ability to use all the energy of the planet. According to astronomer Karl. According to Sagan’s calculations, human civilization is currently counted as a type 0.7 civilization. Type 1 civilization is the ability to utilize all the energy of the parent star. A typical way is to use a Dyson sphere. Everyone knows what a Dyson sphere is , that is, it wraps the sun so that it can maximize the energy. If the Sichuan-type civilization fully utilizes the energy of the sun, then the Sichuan-type civilization has the ability to use the energy of the entire galaxy. For us, it is the energy of the entire galaxy. Of course, what this Sichuan-type civilization looks like is beyond our knowledge, but according to the use of energy Deduced from this underlying clue, as civilization develops, it will inevitably develop the ability to utilize the energy of the entire galaxy. According to physicist Michio Kaku’s calculations, humans will reach the |type civilization in about 100 to 200 years, and then in a few thousand years. It will reach the Sichuan type civilization after 100,000 to 1 million years. This is the premise 2. As civilization develops due to the deepening of energy utilization, civilization will inevitably expand outwards and carry out interstellar colonization. So the methods of expansion are: Which ones have just been mentioned! Type civilization will develop Dyson spheres In addition, alien civilization may develop generations of spaceships. Alien civilization may also develop self-replicating Al. If the alien civilization is capable, it may also directly visit the earth. If the ability is not that great, the alien civilization will at least send radio to the outside. Here is a brief explanation of what generation spacecraft and self-replicating Al are. We need to know that in order to conduct interstellar navigation, the scale of the universe is extremely large, so the interstellar spacecraft must first be extremely fast. For example, it must reach at least 5% of the speed of light for navigation. If the voyage is still very far, for example, it will take several thousand years or even tens of thousands of years to reach the colony. You can also develop a generation spaceship, or a space ark called a Generation Ship. In other words, the astronauts will settle on the spacecraft and then give birth to their children on the spacecraft. After the child grows up, there will be more children and grandchildren. After a few thousand or tens of thousands of years, after arriving at the destination, there will still be lively colonists disembarking from the spaceship to carry out colonial activities. Of course, the embryos can also be frozen on the spacecraft and cultivated by artificial intelligence. Preserving these embryos is like the movie « Alien: Covenant ». After arriving at the destination, the embryos are hatched and what to do after getting off the ship. Of course, if you think the cost is still too high, you can also fully automate it. Al will be the pioneer. This is self. The idea of ​​replicating spacecraft was originally proposed by the mathematician Feng. The method proposed by Neumann is the so-called island hopping strategy. The colonists will drop Al on the neighboring planet Al and then the spaceship will use local resources to self-replicate and create a new Al aircraft without stopping, and then set off from this planet again. The next neighboring planet goes back and forth and spreads throughout the galaxy in a network. If the spacecraft Al is traveling in can travel at 5% of the speed of light , it will be able to colonize the entire galaxy in about 4 million years. Let me remind you again 400 Ten thousand years sounds like a long time , but on the 13 billion-year time scale of the entire Milky Way, it is a very short period of time. Let’s go back and break it down. Because of premise 1, we deduce that there are at least 100,000 civilizations in the Milky Way that are more advanced than ours. Longer alien intelligent civilization. Due to premise 2, the development of civilization will inevitably expand outward. These 100,000 alien civilizations should have filled the sky with Dyson spheres and spaceships in the entire galaxy . However, premise 2 tells us that as of 2022 In September 2018, there was no reliable evidence of the existence of aliens. Not only did no alien civilizations visit the earth, our astronomical telescopes also did not observe any signs of alien civilizations such as Dyson spheres or spacecrafts. Even we did not accept it. We have seen radio signals sent by any extraterrestrial civilization. The universe we have observed is silent. Scientists call Proposition 2 the « Great Silence. » This is the Fermi Paradox. I just said it is not popular science. We still spent a lot of time explaining the Fermi Paradox. All this is to clarify the facts of the case and prepare for our next case . Before solving the case, we still have to introduce the method of solving the case. We said before that the Fermi Paradox is the existence of two contradictory propositions. So we need to It is very simple to crack the Fermi Paradox. Either proposition 1 is false or proposition 2 is false. If proposition 1 is false , either premise 1 is false or premise 2 is false , then we can distinguish three types. The first possibility of cracking the Fermi Paradox is that proposition 1 is true, which means we should find aliens , but proposition 2 is false , which means we have actually discovered aliens. This is further divided into four types. Situation: We already have evidence that aliens have come , aliens are secretly contacting a small number of earthlings , aliens are quietly observing us , and we are aliens. The second possibility is Proposition 2. Although it is true, that is, although we have not discovered alien civilization, alien civilization does exist. However, premise 2 of proposition 1 is false, which means that alien civilization has not expanded outwards, so it cannot come with us. We got in touch, so we didn’t find them. This is further divided into three situations : you can’t come because you don’t have the ability ; you can come but you don’t come on purpose; and you don’t have to come. The third possibility is that proposition 2 is true but Premise 1 of Proposition 1: The Principle of Mediocrity is false. In other words, why haven’t we discovered aliens? Because there is no alien civilization in the entire universe, only our human beings are the only civilization , so there is no paradox. Of course, there are two situations here, namely the strong denial of the mediocrity principle and the weak denial . According to these three possibilities, 9 situations lead to 13 hypotheses, which are specific solutions to the Fermi Paradox. The focus of our next program is to introduce these 13 hypotheses to you one by one. As detectives, each hypothesis is equivalent to a suspect. Let’s comment on which hypothesis is a more reasonable solution. So how do we judge a hypothesis to be a more reasonable hypothesis? Generally speaking, there are 5 criteria for judging the rationality of a hypothesis. First consistency. Consistency is the most basic requirement. That is to say, your hypothesis must first have no bugs, you must be self-consistent and self-explanatory, and you must be able to explain the factual materials you want to explain. If you cannot say that the factual materials have falsified you in the first place, then your hypothesis will be invalid. Secondly, universality Extensiveness means that if your hypothesis can explain more facts, then it is a more reasonable hypothesis than a hypothesis that can explain fewer facts. Third, falsifiability means that your hypothesis cannot be confused and you cannot tell. An untestable statement , such as aliens existing in another dimension of the universe that we cannot go to, then whatever you say is correct, it is just correct nonsense. Fourth simplicity , this is what we often call Occam’s razor. The principle is that in order to explain a thing, a hypothesis that uses fewer assumptions is more reasonable than a hypothesis that uses more assumptions, because it is more trouble-free. Fifth, conservatism means that the hypothesis you propose should be consistent with other hypotheses we accept. In particular, it must be consistent with our existing common sense. If you come up with a particularly bizarre or science-fiction statement to explain a thing , we would still prefer a less bizarre statement. Of course, we need to explain which of these standards is more important and what their weight is. There is no fixed algorithm for which of them are necessary, so there are always people who will take out Occam’s razor whenever they hear someone say something. Occam’s razor is not omnipotent, and Occam’s razor must be used for every hypothesis. There is no fixed algorithm for judging the rationality of a hypothesis measured by a razor, so this is why AI artificial intelligence cannot replace humans in scientific research. Which hypothesis is more reasonable requires the use of human practical wisdom, and this is what our program needs everyone to do next. Who is the murderer in this clever place ? We will select the most reasonable solution to solve the Fermi Paradox among the 13 suspected solutions. After introducing the case and the method of solving the case, we will officially enter the introduction of each suspect. Let’s first look at the first possibility. That is, aliens exist and have been in contact with us. The first hypothesis is that we already have evidence that aliens have been in contact with us. Let’s call this hypothesis the “UFO hypothesis” for the time being . UFOs are often used as evidence to prove that aliens have visited the earth. We often say that so-and-so took photos or videos of UFOs and said that this is evidence that aliens have visited the earth . Of course, many of these are mistaken for natural phenomena. There have been UFOs , but there are also some UFO images that cannot be explained by natural phenomena so far. For example, in April 2020, the U.S. Pentagon admitted that the three UFO videos previously leaked online were real and were shot by the U.S. Navy. We can see in the videos The flying movements made by the flying objects are currently impossible for human aircraft. In addition, some people say that some unnatural wonders on the earth are evidence of aliens visiting the earth. For example, the Pyramid Stonehenge and some crop circles that appear from time to time are definitely not made by us people on earth but are caused by aliens. If you think the above statement is suspicious of civilian science, some scientists have also proposed some evidence of the existence of extraterrestrial civilizations, such as In 2017, astronomers observed an extraterrestrial object passing through the solar system. Astronomers called it Oumuamua. Oumuamua is the first known extraterrestrial object to pass through the solar system. Its flight method is particularly strange. It keeps moving. Flip and Avi, chairman of the Department of Astronomy at Harvard University. Professor Loeb analyzed the flight trajectory of ‘Oumuamua and found that ‘Oumuamua has its own thrust in addition to the gravity of the sun. Of course, we all know that comets also have their own thrust, which comes from the evaporation of gas on the comet. Because of the reaction force , we can see that comets all have long comas. However, we did not observe the coma of Oumuamua through the astronomical telescope, and we did not even find any signs such as rocket jets. So Professor Loeb thought based on this ‘Oumuamua is an alien spacecraft propelled by light sails. Light sails are a future black technology that humans have not yet fully mastered but are theoretically feasible . The speed of an aircraft propelled by light sails can theoretically reach half the speed of light. Light sails do not require fuel. It can use the sun’s radiation pressure as propulsion , so we can’t see any signs of jets at the tail of the light sail. That’s why Professor Loeb believes that ‘Oumuamua is an alien spacecraft propelled by a light sail. In addition, you said our earth I’ve never received a signal from an extraterrestrial civilization, and I can’t say that completely, because scientists have actually received some signals from outer space that are difficult to explain as natural phenomena, such as the “Wow! Signal” and the “Wow! Signal” It was on August 16, 1977 that American astronomer Jerry Eyman received a particularly strong narrow-band radio signal. The source of the signal was the direction of the constellation Sagittarius. After Eyman saw this signal, he circled it on the printed chart. This signal and excitedly wrote « Don’t answer! » next to it. Oh, it’s not that he wrote excitedly « Wow! So far , scientists have not been able to fully explain the mechanism of the « Wow! signal » using natural phenomena, so some people inferred that This signal is sent by an alien civilization. Scientists still have not been able to explain the generation mechanism of fast radio bursts. What is a fast radio burst? It is a high-energy astrophysical phenomenon , in which a violent burst of radio radiation suddenly bursts out in a certain direction in the sky for a sustained period . The duration is only a few thousandths of a second , but the energy released is equivalent to the total energy released by solar radiation in 10 years. Some scientists believe that this fast radio burst comes from an advanced alien civilization, and it may be this advanced alien. A signal deliberately released by civilization may also be a high-energy physical phenomenon caused by the outbreak of war between alien civilizations. In short, the UFO hypothesis means that proposition 2 is false. We already have some evidence of the existence of alien civilizations. However, most people do not take this evidence seriously and think that we have not discovered aliens. Of course, some scholars criticize this hypothesis, saying that these so-called evidences are not strong enough and cannot completely prove the existence of aliens . So what do you think of this hypothesis? Is it reasonable? Now that we have introduced the UFO hypothesis, let’s introduce the next hypothesis, the lizard man hypothesis. This hypothesis means that aliens have actually been in contact with us humans , but they only have contact with a small number of earthlings in a private way . What a high-end conference this is about interstellar civilization contacting humans! This is not even an international high-end conference. This is an interstellar high-end conference. Can ordinary people like us know about this? In fact, all the heads of state on earth, at least the heads of major countries, have contacted aliens. However, this kind of thing has not been announced on CNN news. Of course, this is a conservative statement, and there are also exaggerated statements. Aliens have actually been to the Earth, and they have never left. In fact, some of the important people on Earth, such as politicians from major countries, tech tycoons, and superstars are actually aliens pretending to be aliens. Isn’t there a way to personally play these important figures on the earth to achieve control or at least influence on human civilization? Many important figures on the earth are actually lizardmen. Lizardmen are a kind of aliens. They themselves are not They look like Earthlings, but they disguise themselves as Earthlings to cover up. In fact, they are all aliens. Of course, lizardmen are an exaggeration, but at least the lizardman hypothesis is conservative. It means that some important people on the earth have actually interacted with them. Aliens have contacted us , but we ordinary people don’t know about this high-end interstellar connection, so we think that proposition 2 is also true, but in fact proposition 2 is false. After introducing the lizard man hypothesis, let’s introduce the next hypothesis, the universe zoo. The cosmic zoo hypothesis means that aliens have actually found our human civilization and have even visited our earth. However, they are quietly observing us and have not made us humans aware of their existence. Why should they quietly observe us? This is because alien civilizations are much more advanced than ours. As we said before, alien civilizations may have evolved millions of years earlier than us, so to us they are like primitive little animals. If we directly interact with them, We communicated and asked us some questions. For these advanced questions, we would only answer  » I don’t know. » Then it would be better not to disturb us and just observe us quietly. And because alien civilizations are more advanced than us, they can technically do it. We who observe us in all directions and are not discovered by us are equivalent to bugs for alien civilizations. Biologists are very interested in bugs, such as how bees convey information through dancing or how ants move. But biology We went to interview the bugs at home, and the bugs couldn’t answer anything. So the biologists only needed to keep a certain distance and quietly observe the bugs. This way, they would not cause panic to the bugs, and they could receive the most original information. So the alien civilization is also Observing us quietly like biologists observing bugs, this is the cosmic zoo hypothesis. Of course, there is another hypothesis called the cosmic planetarium hypothesis, which is similar. There are no logical loopholes in these hypotheses, and they are definitely consistent. However, there are also criticisms from scholars. You say these hypotheses are not falsifiable. You say aliens are observing us in a way that is impossible for us to detect. It is difficult to find evidence that can be tested. Moreover, this hypothesis is a bit egocentric. I always feel that I have it. Worth Attention Isn’t there a focus effect in psychology? It means that I always feel that others are observing me but in fact no one is observing me. For example, even when I am alone at home, I can always feel my The goddess is silently observing my every move , so even if I am alone at home, I cannot do unhealthy things. After introducing the cosmic zoo hypothesis, let’s introduce the panspermia hypothesis. The panspermia hypothesis also claims that proposition two is false. It ’s not that we haven’t discovered aliens because we ourselves are aliens. You know, our current scientists have not yet figured out how life on earth originated. There are different hypotheses about the origin of life. One of them is This hypothesis is that life on our earth was originally spread from extraterrestrials, for example, by meteorites flying from outer space and sown on the earth. This theory is called panspermia, which means that life can follow from outer space. The meteorite drifts like a drifting bottle to which planet ? If this planet is suitable for life, then life will take root and sprout on this planet. It is very likely that life on our earth originally came from this way. Now there is a saying that there is obviously life on Mars. Signs of existence. Scientists have discovered through detectors that there are traces of rivers and canyons on the surface of Mars. This is a sign that liquid water existed on early Mars. Moreover, early Mars had more oxygen than Earth and was more conducive to the formation of life. It is very likely that early Mars existed After life, life on Mars became extinct due to geological changes on Mars. But a small number of life forms flew from Mars to the Earth on meteorites. Indeed, scientists have discovered that many meteorites that fell to the Earth came from Mars. This is equivalent to saying that life originated on Mars but developed and expanded on Mars . Although it was desolate, life on Mars successfully entered the Earth and took over the earth. Now the desolate Mars can be regarded as the land of prosperity of our earth’s civilization. Of course, if you think that the probability of life drifting here on a meteorite is too small, because of the meteorite It is difficult for life on earth to resist the harm of cosmic radiation. In addition, life on meteorites is difficult to preserve when entering the earth’s atmosphere. Then there is another kind of panspermia called purposeful panspermia, which means that this life is indeed from outside. It was transmitted from space to the earth and it was transmitted with a purpose. Don’t think that this statement was put forward by civilian scientists. It was proposed by Francis, a biophysicist who discovered the double helix structure and won the Nobel Prize. Crick and one of the early proponents of the RNA world theory, chemist Leslie. What the two Ogiers jointly proposed is that an advanced alien intelligent civilization deliberately spread the fire of life to the earth. Since it was a deliberate arrangement, it can deliberately avoid cosmic radiation and the earth’s atmosphere through technical means. The harm caused by the fire of life can be safely sown on the earth. It is very likely that life on our earth is part of the space drift plan of an advanced alien civilization. That is, their robots sit in spaceships and sow seeds everywhere in the universe as much as possible. Life and we are the product of their cosmic drifting plan , so the second proposition of the Fermi Paradox is false. It’s not that we haven’t discovered aliens, because aliens are ourselves. This is equivalent to saying that you point a telescope at outer space. After looking for a long time to find aliens, I finally found out that no, I became an alien. That’s pretty much what it means. Of course, if you want to criticize this hypothesis, it is a little less widespread, which means that it can eliminate the paradox. But it also doesn’t explain why we still haven’t received information from alien civilizations after so many years, except that we ourselves came from aliens from the beginning. So do you think the panspermia hypothesis is reasonable? Now that we have introduced the panspermia hypothesis, let’s introduce the Too Far Hypothesis. The previously introduced hypotheses are all the first possible hypotheses. They exist and have come. That is, proposition one is true and proposition two is false. That means aliens exist and have come. We have had contact with us earthlings , so now we are entering into the discussion of the second possibility, which exists but has never been, that is, proposition 2 is true. We have really never contacted extraterrestrial civilizations, but premise 2 of proposition 1 is Fake alien civilizations do exist, but they have failed to contact us due to various reasons. The second possibility we are going to introduce next is the focus of these 7 hypotheses to explain why aliens do not come. Of course, the first reason for contacting us is that you can’t come . Why don’t you have that ability? The most direct reason is that it’s too far away from us. Everyone needs to know that this universe is actually very vast and very empty. You fly from a star galaxy to The distance to another star galaxy is at least several hundred light years. What does « hundreds of light years » mean? Judging from the current level of human science and technology, it would take at least several million years to complete such a voyage. Even if the technology of the alien civilization is more advanced at the destination , it cannot travel faster than the speed of light. The speed of light is the basic limit of the entire universe. Aliens also have to abide by the Basic Law. So even if the technology of the alien civilization is more advanced, it can reach the speed of light 5 It would take tens of thousands of years to sail hundreds of light-years at a speed of 5% , and the premise is that this civilization has evolved for a long time and developed the ability to sail at at least 5% of the speed of light. It will take more time. Even if we assume that no matter how advanced the alien technology is, it will only take a few thousand years to cross the distance of hundreds of light-years. However, there are also humanitarian risks in this implementation, which we mentioned before. The concept of a generation spaceship or space ark is to give birth to children on the way. But do you think any civilization is willing to pay the price of dozens of generations to fly to an unknown world? Even if you master the hibernation technology , you can maintain hibernation during the entire flight to fight the long journey, but this means that this generation of explorers will completely say goodbye to their home planet and their relatives after setting off, after going through thousands of years of voyages. It is still unknown whether their home star civilization will still exist after arriving at their destination. Is there really any civilization willing to undertake such a costly interstellar exploration? Therefore, because interstellar colonization takes so long and requires such a large humanitarian cost, the cost of interstellar voyages is extremely high. It is probably because it is too expensive, and aliens may feel that it is not worth doing it. And let’s take a step back and say that even if there are brave alien civilizations that are determined to carry out interstellar colonization, for example, they want to fly near our solar system , but what we said at the beginning is that this universe is too vast and empty. Whether they fly here in person or send a message, it takes too much time . Our human civilization is still a very young civilization. Why haven’t we discovered extraterrestrial civilizations yet? The reason is very simple, we haven’t waited yet. Think about it, it only took 200,000 years for our Homo sapiens species to be born. It only took 10,000 years to produce written civilization. It only took 200 years to produce industrial civilization. It took only 200 years for us to discover that we can send radio signals to outer space. It’s just recently. Don’t look at 100 years or so . 200,000 and 10,000 years seem like a long time, but on the scale of the universe, it is only a short moment. It is normal for us to find no trace of extraterrestrial civilization at this moment. Let ‘s wait. For example, if we wait another 100,000 years, maybe we can wait until aliens say hello to us. Because the universe is too vast and empty, even if alien civilization does exist, the distance between civilization and civilization will be too far. So this explains Proposition 2, why we haven’t found them yet. After introducing the hypothesis, it’s too far away. Next, we introduce another hypothesis that can’t come without that ability. The Great Filter Hypothesis. This Great Filter Hypothesis means that although according to Proposition 1 Premise 1: The Banality Principle It seems that in theory, intelligent civilizations can indeed evolve in the universe other than the earth, and even intelligent civilizations capable of interstellar colonization can evolve . However, the reason why we have not found any signs of alien civilizations so far is because There are some big filters that stand between alien civilizations before they develop the ability to colonize the stars. These big filters make it possible for alien civilizations to be filtered out before they develop the ability to colonize the stars. The original proponent of the Great Filter Hypothesis was an economist. Scholar Robin. Hansen proposed 9 big filters. That is to say, before leading to the ninth layer of interstellar colonization, many alien civilizations failed to pass these big filters and fell directly or at least stagnated in the primary stage. That’s why we We won’t find them. Let’s just say that the origin of life is a big filter. As we said before, scientists still haven’t figured out how life on earth originated because it is really too difficult. The probability is too small , so some scientists have pointed out that life on earth is probably brought by aliens. In addition, even if life evolves on a planet, will this life definitely continue to evolve into an intelligent life? No, there is a big filter blocking it. When it comes to this, I have to mention that many people have a wrong understanding of the theory of evolution. Many people think that with the development of time, as long as the time is long enough , life will be inevitable. It can evolve into intelligent life , and then given some time, this intelligent life will inevitably continue to develop towards the so-called « type civilization » or « Sichuan type civilization ». It seems that the evolution of life has an inevitable trend from simple to complex, from low-level to high-level. But who said? Does the evolution of life necessarily lead to the evolution of complex intelligent life? The emergence of intelligent life is not an inevitable evolution of history , and there is no inevitable direction from low-level to high-level. Take our life on earth as an example. You must know that 99% of the species that have appeared on the earth have become extinct. The most common species on the earth at present is Single-celled organisms like bacteria. Even if we don’t talk about bacteria, we will talk about multicellular animals. The most numerous animals on the earth are bugs. As for the emergence of intelligent life like us, it is just a pure chance. It is the superposition of a small probability of a series of coincidental factors. For example, an asteroid hit the earth 65 million years ago and wiped out the dinosaurs, giving us milk. Animal ancestors freed up living space. Another example is that a brief climate change 70,000 years ago made eastern Africa relatively humid , allowing our Homo sapiens ancestors to successfully move out of Africa . Of course, according to the 9 big filters listed by Hansen We humans are very lucky now and have successfully passed through the first 8 major filters and have reached the 8th level. But let’s not get too happy too early. We are very likely to be filtered by the 9th major filter. We have been stuck on the 8th level. Before we have the ability to colonize the interstellar world, our human civilization will become extinct. You must know that our human civilization is too short. As mentioned before, the species history of our Homo sapiens is only 200,000 years of civilization history. Just 10,000 years is a short moment on the cosmic scale. Maybe in another 10,000 to 20,000 years, the geological climate will have changed dramatically , or a super virus will come, or an asteroid will hit the earth again . Human civilization was GG before the first level , and since the evolution of life does not have an inevitable trend from low-level to high-level, there is another possibility that aliens may have evolved to be intelligent, but then « degenerated » and lost intelligence. Of course, This « degeneration » is in quotation marks because evolution does not matter whether it is progress or regression. As long as you can survive, everyone must know that intelligence is not cost-effective in a certain sense. Take us humans as an example. The weight of our brain occupies the entire body. About 2% of energy consumption accounts for about 20%. Using our brains consumes a lot of electricity. It is very likely that one day the environment will change so that we can live well without using our brains . We may even live better without using our brains than using our brains . Intelligence is of little significance to our survival and prosperity. Can people who like to think have more children than people who don’t like to think? Many viewers of our big-problem program are singles. Instead, people who don’t take things to heart can always have more children. Human beings who can imagine the future don’t need to be intelligent. Tens of thousands of years later, humans will If intelligence has « degraded », then what’s the point of talking about interstellar colonization? Another big filter is the further development of scientific knowledge. You must know that scientific knowledge does not naturally develop and progress. We ourselves have just experienced the booming development of physics in the 20th century. We feel that science will always be like the 20th century. It has been developing at such a rapid pace in the past century , but if you think about it, after general relativity and quantum mechanics, will we have any major breakthroughs in basic science today? Without it, future scientific development is likely to stagnate. Our basic science has been locked up and there will be no further development. In 1900, Sir Kelvin proposed that there are two dark clouds above the head of physics. Later, with the development of physics in the 20th century, The two dark clouds of development have dissipated , but now we have dark clouds all over the sky . What are the free parameters in the standard model, what are dark matter, dark energy, and what is the origin of life. These are all dark clouds . Perhaps our human knowledge development has come to an end and will not evolve at all . It has become the so-called Sichuan-type civilization and Sichuan-type civilization. Perhaps aliens have locked up their knowledge just like us, so they cannot develop the ability to colonize the interstellar world. Now let’s talk about what the Great Filter Hypothesis means? Let’s go back to that mind map and say that premise 1 of Proposition 1, the Principle of Mediocrity, is correct. In theory, alien civilizations can exist in this universe, but premise 2 is wrong. Before alien civilization develops the ability to colonize interstellar space, it will will be filtered out by layers of big filters. So in this sense, we humans who follow the principle of mediocrity are actually not that mediocre. We are lucky enough to have passed through the 9 big filters listed by Hansen. After passing the first 8 large filters, this is a very low probability thing in the entire universe. Intuitively, according to the principle of mediocrity, it seems that as long as the sample size is large enough, anything with a small probability will happen. The universe is large enough, the universe time is long enough, among which No matter what, there will be alien civilizations with interstellar colonization capabilities. Although it can be said that, the problem is that although the sample size of our universe is large, it is not infinite. Due to the existence of the large filter, the probability of evolving interstellar colonization capabilities is really too high. It’s as small as the space and time of the entire universe of 13.8 billion light-years. As a sample, this sample size is still too small. That’s what the big filter hypothesis means. After talking about the big filter hypothesis, let’s introduce the self- destruction hypothesis . The hypothesis is somewhat similar to the Great Filter Hypothesis mentioned earlier. It also belongs to the category of being unable to come back and not having that ability. How does the self-destruction hypothesis explain why one does not have that ability? This is because once an intelligent civilization evolves in the universe, intelligence will kill itself . Intelligent civilization has an inherent tendency to self-destruct. Once a civilization develops intelligence, it will definitely be killed by itself in a short time . Of course, this is It’s a bit of a technological threat theory. We humans are old acquaintances in this aspect. This is also an old routine in science fiction movies. With the development of human science and technology, we will have a variety of ways to kill ourselves, such as the outbreak of nuclear war. We will All animals and plants on the surface, including ourselves, were killed. For example, the Large Hadron Collider hit some strange particles , and these strange particles created black holes. Then this black hole would enter the core of the earth and destroy the entire earth. They have all been swallowed up. For example, the development of biotechnology such as gene editing has transformed ourselves into extinction. For example, the development of artificial intelligence has gone out of control, causing them to dominate us humans and eventually drive us humans to extinction. Wait, wait, wait, everyone is familiar with the formulas in these science fiction movies. Here we will introduce another internal logic why an intelligent civilization will self-destruct, which is the light cage limit. So what is the light cage limit? It’s simple. That is to say, there is no civilization capable of interstellar colonization, because once a civilization needs to carry out interstellar colonization to relieve the pressure of survival, it will have already killed itself. Specifically, once a civilization develops the ability of interstellar colonization, for example, it reaches Sichuan At the level of a Type-type civilization or a Sichuan-type civilization, then in the early days, it could gain huge benefits from continuous outward expansion. That is, with the mother star as the center of the sphere, the self-replicating Al aircraft continued to expand into the surrounding interstellar space. So in the process of expansion The population of Chinese colonists will also continue to rise , and it will rise exponentially with the development of colonization. However, at first, the density of the population within the territory of this sphere with the home star as the center is constant. Why? Because this is Maintained by the expansion of colonial space that also rises exponentially , until one day the speed of space expansion will be close to the speed of light. Once you reach the speed of light, the territorial volume with the home star as the center of the sphere will be locked because you cannot Super light speed, then when the expansion speed of this civilization reaches the speed of light, it touches the so-called light cage. At this time, the expansion of colonial space and the acquisition of resources will tend to stagnate, but the exponential increase in the colonist population will not stop. If it comes down, then the entire civilization will collapse. It sounds like it will take a long, long time for the expansion of colonial space to reach the speed of light. But note that this is an exponential growth curve , even if the population growth rate is only 1% at first. A civilization capable of interstellar colonization can reach the light cage in less than a few thousand years. Judging from the age of the universe, it is a blink of an eye. This also explains why we cannot discover extraterrestrial civilizations . Because once an extraterrestrial civilization Once it has the ability to colonize the interstellar space, it will only take a few thousand years for it to touch the light cage and kill itself. Therefore, the ability to colonize the interstellar space has an inherent tendency to self-destruct, which is a bit similar to the interstellar version of the Malthusian trap. Once you fall into this trap , either the civilization will become extinct within a few thousand years, or it will have to maintain a low growth rate, so it will give up interstellar colonization and live a low-carbon and environmentally friendly otaku life, all staying on its home planet. Of course, it will not be discovered by us. Let’s summarize the self-destruction hypothesis. Why haven’t we discovered extraterrestrial civilizations? Because once a civilization’s technological level develops the ability to colonize interstellar space, civilizations to this level will fall into a They are in a trap of self-destruction, so we can’t find them easily. After introducing the self-destruction hypothesis, let’s introduce the aestivation hypothesis . The aestivation hypothesis also belongs to the alien civilization that will encounter limitations after it develops to a certain level. However, it is not like the self-destruction hypothesis. It will self-destruct. The limitation it encounters is that it must take a long sleep before it can carry out interstellar colonization. How do you say this? That is to say, everyone must know that when a civilization has the ability to colonize interstellar, its energy consumption will be Huge and this kind of advanced civilization with highly developed technology must be a civilization that relies heavily on computers. Then there is a question at this time. How do these computers with huge energy consumption dissipate heat? Even if the alien computer is not our Turing architecture computer, it must comply with the laws of thermodynamics, and it must also dissipate heat. If the computer is too hot, its running speed will be very slow , and it can only operate in a low-temperature environment. If it is efficient, then there is no other way. The aliens will have to wait for the universe to slowly cool down. Only then can supercomputers that can support interstellar colonization be able to operate efficiently. We know that the universe originally came out of a singularity Big Bang. The temperature of this singularity is Very, very high. After the big bang, the universe is still expanding, and this expansion process is also a process of continuous cooling of the universe. The current temperature of the cosmic microwave background radiation, which is the residual temperature of the universe after the big bang, is 2.7K. So when When the universe expands to a large enough size, the temperature will further drop, and aliens are also waiting for the universe to cool down further so that they can start their supercomputers for interstellar colonization. This process of slowly waiting for the universe to cool down is what is called Aestivation is also very vivid. It is too hot in summer and you have to wait until the weather is cooler before working . During this period of aestivation, aliens do not carry out interstellar colonization activities. So this explains why we have not been able to discover extraterrestrial life. Because civilizations with interstellar colonization capabilities all face the problem of heat dissipation, they are currently in the process of aestivation in order to wait for the universe to cool down. This is the aestivation hypothesis. Do you think this hypothesis is reasonable? After introducing the aestivation hypothesis, let’s introduce the dark forest hypothesis. The four hypotheses introduced before all belong to the category of being unable to come and not having the ability. Next, the one we are going to introduce belongs to the category of having the ability to colonize the interstellar space but deliberately keeping silent. Of course, the most famous one is the Dark Forest Law mentioned in Liu Cixin’s novel « The Three-Body Problem ». Of course, everyone is familiar with what is the Dark Forest Hypothesis. Let’s explain it in our logic diagram. That is to say, the proposition . Premise 1 of 1 is correct. According to the principle of mediocrity, there are already many intelligent civilizations with interstellar colonization capabilities in the universe, and they are even filled with such intelligent civilizations. However, premise 2 is wrong . These intelligent civilizations deliberately remain silent and do not make public announcements. Why? It is precisely because the universe is already filled with these intelligent civilizations, which means that the resources in the universe are basically occupied by the civilizations in them, so the resources are extremely limited. So if my resources are discovered by other civilizations, what will happen to others? Civilization will rob through violent means , so why can’t we sit down and discuss and do interstellar trade together ? Why do we have to resort to violence? Liu Cixin introduced game theory to explain this. This is the so-called chain of suspicion. Communication between different interstellar civilizations is not smooth. If you think about it, communication between people of different races on earth is quite difficult. What’s more, it’s communication between different interstellar civilizations. Therefore, once an alien civilization encounters another alien civilization, even if it is not hostile originally, due to the difficulty of interstellar communication, how do I know whether the other alien civilization is hostile to me? Even if I am not hostile to the other party , how do I know if the other party knows that I am not hostile to the other party? So even if I know that the other party knows that I am not hostile to the other party , how do I know that the other party knows that I know that the other party knows that I am not hostile to the other party? If you continue to postpone it like this, there will be no end. This is a chain of suspicion. Therefore, this chain of suspicion makes interstellar communication impossible. Therefore, once two different interstellar civilizations encounter each other, the wisest thing to do is to strike first and destroy the other party first. It’s all done in order to rob each other’s resources. This is why civilizations in the universe always resort to violence. This universe is a dark forest that obeys the laws of the jungle. The universe is not humane and worldly, but it is fighting and killing. So according to the laws of the dark forest, this is It explains why according to the premise of Proposition 1, although the universe is full of intelligent civilizations, why it cannot be deduced (compatible with) Proposition 2 is why this universe will show a scene of great silence because every person in the dark forest of the universe In order to protect itself, a civilization never sends out radios to reveal its position. It just listens and waits for others to reveal its position. Therefore , the rational strategy for every civilization is not to answer. But we humans are stupid. Isn’t it just waiting for the aliens to destroy themselves by constantly sending signals to outer space ? So Liu Cixin said in the novel, « In the dark forest, there was a stupid kid called a human who lit a fire and shouted to me Here! I’m here! Physicist Stephen Hawking also said that if aliens visit us, the results may be similar to when Columbus set foot on the American continent. This is not good news for the local Indians. Well, this is the dark forest hypothesis. Of course, some people have criticized this hypothesis. The most concentrated point is that the universe is very vast and empty. Is it like the novel says that the entire universe is filled with intelligent civilizations and all the resources that can be occupied are occupied ? It’s a problem. After introducing the dark forest hypothesis, let’s introduce the new technology tree hypothesis. Previously, we introduced the two types of hypotheses: those who can’t come and don’t have that ability , and those who have that ability but don’t come on purpose. Now let’s introduce the two types of hypotheses: aliens don’t exist at all. This type of hypothesis is also a refutation of premise 2 of Proposition 1. Premise 2 says that as intelligent civilization develops, it will inevitably expand outward through interstellar colonization. But the problem is that a highly developed intelligent civilization wants to maintain peace. Is it necessary to develop oneself on the road of imperialism of outward expansion? In addition to interstellar colonization, an intelligent civilization can develop itself by opening a new technology tree. The new technology tree hypothesis can be expressed in this way. It sounds like a The paradox is that when an intelligent civilization has developed to the point of having the ability to colonize the interstellar world, then it has no need to colonize the interstellar space. How can we say this? We can imagine that when the technological level of a civilization reaches a certain level, it will Black technologies that can efficiently utilize energy can be developed to convert some materials that were not scarce in the past into energy. For example, if you have mastered controllable nuclear fusion technology or antimatter technology, or can harvest energy from quantum vacuum, then you don’t need to go out and go out. Star Colony is just like when you play StarCraft. Normally, you have to keep opening sub-bases to continue playing because the mines in the main base are limited. But if the mine in your home is a super rich mine, it is similar to Big Game Hunters is a super-enhanced version of the map. One crystal has a value of 99999999 and you can mine it forever. Then why do you need to open a separate base? Let’s go back to the premise 2 of Proposition 1, which is that as civilization develops, it will inevitably expand into space. This is actually based on the cognitive situation of our human civilization, which is not yet technologically advanced, as a starting point for the highly developed alien civilization. The speculation is that poverty limits our imagination. What is it like? It is like an ancient peasant imagining what kind of life the emperor lived? When he saw that he was farming with iron hoes every day , he imagined that the emperor must be working with gold hoes. We humans look back on our own historical resources and must expand outward. Our ancestors of Homo sapiens first expanded from Africa to the world, and then Europeans went This is also the imperialist expansion route , so to imagine that developed alien civilizations will also expand outwards is purely to use oneself to save others , making the mistake of human egocentrism. The same reason is based on this cognitive bias of human egocentrism. Based on human beings’ own situation, we infer that almost all of our current energy comes from solar energy, so we assume that an alien civilization must also have a star like the sun, and then when it develops to a certain stage, it will create a Dyson sphere to surround the sun. If we try to maximize the use of solar energy , then even the energy of stars will not be enough, we will have to colonize the stars and go to other galaxies to continue large-scale projects. We always think that when this civilization develops to a certain level, it must build a Dyson sphere, carry out large-scale projects, and then make big news. Let everyone in the universe know , but who says big is good? Advanced alien civilizations are likely to develop towards the microscopic scale. For example, they like to play with nanobots or mine energy from the quantum vacuum. Their advanced alien civilizations are small and beautiful. Whether the route is feasible does not necessarily require outward expansion. In order to avoid this kind of anthropocentric cognitive bias, it also tells us that the predictions you make about the future based on your current cognition are mostly unreliable . When you develop to a certain stage, your cognition will also change accordingly. Think about it, the level of technological development of our human beings today is simply different from the level of technological development 200 years ago . People back then could say that when we look at people today, Looking at people from another dimension , if we humans still use the old imperialist expansion path of 200 years ago to predict our own future development path, and talk about entering the customs and so on, this is considered poverty. The consequences of limiting imagination can cause such a gap in cognitive levels within 200 years. Not to mention that aliens have developed tens of thousands or even millions of years longer than us. So why should we say that they have advanced alien civilizations? If you want to develop yourself, you must also follow the path of Guanxue. Well, let’s talk about how the new technology tree hypothesis solves the Fermi Paradox. When an intelligent civilization has developed to the point where it has the ability to colonize the stars, then its The level of science and technology makes it possible for it to develop very well without the need for interstellar colonization. After introducing the new technology tree hypothesis, let’s introduce the metaverse hypothesis. This hypothesis is similar to the previous hypothesis. That is, when alien civilizations have already When they have developed to a certain stage, their technological level has exceeded our cognition , and they are no longer following the low-level path of imperialist expansion. Then this metaverse hypothesis means that when this civilization develops to a certain level, it will directly metaverse. This means that when civilization develops to a certain extent, it will shift from the real physical world to the virtual world. Just like in the movie « The Matrix » or « Ready Player One », you use a tube to connect yourself to the virtual world or directly become conscious. Once uploaded, everyone can just sit at home and play games. It’s so green, environmentally friendly, low energy consumption, and there’s no resource shortage problem. The paper people in the virtual world are so beautiful, and there’s no need to make a cash deposit to expand outward. Isn’t this how the Fermi Paradox can be explained? Of course, the more a civilization develops, the later it will enter the virtual world. This does not mean that the civilization will degenerate as it develops, but that as the civilization develops, biological civilization will enter. How do we say that we have reached a post-biological stage ? Let’s take human civilization as an example. Under the cognitive level of our current civilization, we will feel that the carrier of the continuation of civilization is that the genes of our species are continued through the continuous birth of children. To inherit human civilization , but with the further development of civilization, the carrier of civilization will change from genes to culture, which is the so-called meme. So as long as this culture is still the culture inherited by our human civilization, it does not matter what its material matrix is. Regardless of whether it is a carbon-based biological body or silicon-based computer hardware, it is our human civilization. Therefore, when a civilization enters the post-biological stage, in order to develop the civilization to a greater extent, it is definitely better to copy memes in the program of the metaverse. It is more efficient to give birth to children through the physical body. In this sense, a highly developed civilization Al robot will become the material carrier of this civilization. It does not need a physical body in the biological sense. It will directly ascend mechanically or directly upload its consciousness. They only need All you need to do is inherit memes in the program of the metaverse. This is the explanation of the Fermi Paradox by the metaverse hypothesis. Why haven’t we discovered advanced alien civilizations? Because advanced alien civilizations are already living in the metaverse. After introducing the metaverse hypothesis, we will introduce the last possibility of cracking the Fermi Paradox. Aliens do not exist. We talked about cracking the Fermi Paradox at the beginning. On the whole, there are three possible explanations : Either proposition 2 is false, premise 2 of proposition 1 is false, or premise 1 of proposition 1 is false. We have introduced the first two possibilities before, and then only the third one is left. There are three possibilities , that is, there are no alien civilizations at all. There is only our human civilization, the only intelligent civilization in the entire universe. So if we are the only intelligent civilization in the entire universe, then the next question we must answer is why are we special? This third possible explanation is the negation of premise 1 of Proposition 1, the principle of mediocrity, which means that we are not mediocre and we are different , so we need to explain why we are different? The answer to this question depends on which way you negate the principle of mediocrity. One is weak negation and the other is strong negation. Weak negation is negation in a probabilistic sense, which means that there is nothing special about the underlying principles of our human civilization. We are also mediocre at the bottom. In theory, we have evolved by ourselves in compliance with the physical laws that are universal to the entire universe. However, technically it is very difficult to evolve an intelligent civilization, and the probability is too small, which is why we are so Special strong negation means that this is not only a problem that is difficult to implement technically , but is fundamentally unfeasible in theory. It is impossible for evolution to evolve the good of our human civilization. Let’s talk about weak negation first. About this weak negation Paleontologist Peter. Ward and astronomer Donald. Brownlee proposed a hypothesis called the rare earth hypothesis . As the name suggests, the earth that can evolve our human civilization is very rare and very special. So what kind of special method? Let’s talk about the sun first . We know that there must be a stable burning star. In order for life to evolve on the star earth, this requires that the mass of the star cannot be too large or too small. How do you say this? We know that it will first take 1 billion years for the earth to slowly cool down into a planet that allows the birth of life, and another 1 billion years. In order to produce the basic environment for nurturing life such as oceans and atmosphere, it will take 2 billion years to evolve from single-cell life to an intelligent civilization like humans , and it will take almost 5 billion years to enter a stably burning star. We call a star in the stable burning stage a main sequence star . The mass of our sun can allow it to have a main sequence star stage of 10 billion years, and it has been burning stably for exactly 5 billion years . So if the star’s mass is too The larger it is, the faster its thermonuclear reaction will be. For example, Sirius, one of the nearest stars to us, has twice the mass of the sun, so its main sequence stage can only last about 500 million years. Therefore, we cannot expect to find extraterrestrial civilizations in the Sirius galaxy at all. So some people have said that it would be fine if the mass of this star is smaller. The main sequence of stars with small mass can last longer, but it cannot be too small, because if the mass of the sun is too small, it will If the heat emitted is not enough , then the earth must be closer to the sun to obtain enough heat. Once the distance between the earth and the sun is closer, it will cause the sun to be tidally locked to the earth. That is, the rotation period and revolution period of the earth are the same . There is only one side of the earth that always revolves around the sun. For example, the moon is tidally locked by the earth. This will cause this side of the earth to always be extremely hot during the day, while the other side will always be dark and extremely cold at night. The earth is a double sky of ice and fire . The mass of this star cannot be too large or too small . The mass of our current sun just fits this value of not too big or too small. After talking about the sun, let’s talk about the earth. The distance between the earth and the sun is really not far and not too far. This close proximity makes the average surface temperature about 20 degrees Celsius, allowing the existence of liquid water. We look at the order of the eight planets in the solar system. Venus is slightly closer to the sun than our earth. Its average surface temperature is 500 degrees Celsius, and all liquid water has evaporated . The average temperature of Mars, which is slightly further from the sun than our earth, immediately becomes minus 55 degrees, not to mention liquid water . Carbon dioxide will also freeze into dry ice for you. After talking about the distance between the earth and the sun, let’s look at the surface area of ​​the earth. If the surface area of ​​the earth is slightly larger, A little bit , then the earth’s heat dissipation will be too fast, causing the night to become very cold. If the surface area of ​​the earth is slightly smaller, too much heat will not be able to dissipate, making the earth hotter and hotter. After talking about the surface area of ​​the earth, let’s talk about the mass of the earth . If the mass of the earth is slightly lighter , the gravity of the earth will become weaker, and the atmosphere on the earth will become very thin or even disappear completely. If the mass of the earth is slightly heavier, it will attract more greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide. Greenhouse gases will cause the surface temperature of the planet to continue to rise, and eventually it will turn into a greenhouse planet like Venus. Of course, the earth has too many special conditions to explain in detail what the ecliptic angle is exactly 23.5 degrees. The earth orbits the sun. The orbit is almost a perfect circle. If we look at the level of biological evolution in detail, what asteroids hit the earth and wiped out the dinosaurs, making room for our mammals, what made the East African grasslands wet, allowing the ancestors of Homo sapiens to leave Africa, etc., etc., etc., etc., etc. , have made us It would take ten books to write about the special conditions for the evolution of an intelligent civilization like human beings. We only list two or three here to give you a sense of how lucky we are to evolve . And we must pay attention to these countless special conditions. The conditions are not a simple additive relationship but a multiplicative relationship of links within links. Without any one of the links, life cannot evolve, let alone intelligent life. So let’s get back to it , although we introduced the principle of mediocrity at the beginning. I also said that in theory, since this universe can evolve our human civilization, it can also evolve other alien civilizations in theory. It is theoretically possible and yes, but it is too difficult to operate technically. You have to get it together. The special conditions that I just mentioned are one after another. I want to put these conditions together. Sorry , even if the entire universe has 13.8 billion light-years of space and time as a sample, the sample size is still too small. In these small It just so happens that our planet is the only one that meets these conditions in the sample size. So in this sense, this rare earth hypothesis is similar to the Great Filter Hypothesis we introduced before. The Great Filter Hypothesis means that after evolution, we can have interstellar colonization. The ability of alien civilizations has previously passed through some big filters . In the sense of the rare earth hypothesis, it emphasizes the uniqueness of our earth civilization. At present, only our earth civilization has passed the layers of screening and is the only evolved intelligence in the entire universe. Civilization is good. This is the rare earth hypothesis. It is a weak denial of the mediocrity principle. So next we will introduce a hypothesis that strongly negates the mediocrity principle. The creationist hypothesis strongly negates premise 1. The mediocrity principle means that we are different. So why don’t we Same? It’s because we are the chosen ones. This easily solves the Fermi Paradox. Why haven’t we discovered extraterrestrial civilizations? Because intelligent life or even life itself cannot evolve by itself. It must be created . So who created us and how were we created? This is another big question. The topic of our last big question was discussed. Friends who are interested can go out and turn left to watch the previous program. I won’t go into details in this program . Let’s go back to Fermi. In the context of paradox, if we are created, this seems to solve the Fermi paradox, but it also leads to a new paradox. How can we say this? That is to say, if we are created, this is also true. It means that there is a high-level intelligence that created us. It also means that there are aliens. Isn’t this a new paradox? On the one hand, you deny the mediocrity principle and say that there are no aliens. On the other hand, you say that we If they were created by advanced intelligence , then there are aliens. So are there or not? Of course, if we have to solve this new paradox, we can also say that the advanced intelligent civilization that created us is not in the universe of our dimension. If they are in other parallel universes, let’s call them aliens. When the aliens created us, they jointly created our entire universe. So although there are aliens, in the universe of our dimension, we are still The only intelligent civilization has solved this new paradox in this way, but this will still lead to another paradox. Who created the universe of foreigners who created our universe? This goes back to our last episode about Thomas. Aquinas’s theology mentioned the question of whether infinite retracement is true. This question is endless. Well, we will introduce the solution to the Fermi Paradox here. Next, we will enter the meeting to summarize this issue of the big issue program. Shared 13 solutions to the Fermi Paradox. Finally, let’s take a look at this mind map. This picture can be downloaded from the public account of the same name. The reason why the Fermi Paradox is a paradox is that both of them seem to be correct. But Proposition 2, which is composed of contradictory propositions, is a factual proposition. Proposition 1 is an inference with high certainty. This inference is derived based on two premises that we all generally believe are true. To solve the Fermi Paradox, it is nothing more than an either proposition. Either the first is false or the second proposition is false. If the second proposition is false, it means that aliens have actually contacted us. This further leads to several possibilities. Either we already have evidence, this is the UFO hypothesis or extraterrestrial. The aliens are secretly contacting a small number of earthlings. This is the lizard-man hypothesis. Either aliens are quietly observing us in a way that we are not aware of, which is the cosmic zoo hypothesis. Or we ourselves are aliens, which is the embryonic species. On hypothesis, if proposition 1 is false, proposition 1 is composed of two premises, so either premise 1 is false or premise 2 is false. If premise 2 is false, it means that aliens exist but have not come to make contact with humans. The connection further leads to several possibilities : either it is impossible to come and does not have the ability, which leads to the too far hypothesis, the Great Filter hypothesis, the self-destruction hypothesis and the aestivation hypothesis; or it is possible to come but deliberately chooses to remain silent, which introduces darkness. The forest hypothesis either means that there is no need for them to come, or that they click on the new technology tree and expand outwards , or that they directly enter the metaverse and live in the virtual world. If premise 1 of Proposition 1 is Falseness is the denial of the principle of mediocrity That is to say, there are no aliens. Based on the weak denial of the mediocre principle, the rare earth hypothesis was derived. Based on the strong negation of the mediocre principle, the creationism hypothesis was introduced. Today we introduce the three major possibilities and 13 hypotheses to solve the Fermi Paradox. Combining the five criteria for judging the rationality of hypotheses we introduced before, which one or several hypotheses do you think is more reasonable? Or if you think there is a more reasonable hypothesis, you are welcome to add it. Finally, let’s talk about the host’s thoughts. I remember Liu Cixin once participated in a talk show and was asked whether we have never discovered extraterrestrial civilizations because they are too backward or because they are too advanced. Advanced? Liu Cixin replied that whether they are too backward or too advanced, this conclusion is not shocking enough. The really shocking conclusion is that it is very likely that we are the only civilization in the universe. Why do you say this conclusion is shocking? Let’s not talk about whether there are actually aliens. This is a question worth discussing. This is what we are discussing in today’s program. But let’s not talk about the conclusion of the discussion . In fact, we already have a hopeful answer in our hearts . Why do aliens exist ? Because we are afraid of being alone. We are afraid that we are the only ones in this vast universe. Our appearance is unreasonable. It is just a cold accident. Our appearance is unreasonable. It is inexplicable. We are inexplicable. We come into this universe and then we leave inexplicably. No one else has seen us come , so we are just like we have never been here. Czech writer Milan. In his novel « The Unbearable Lightness of Being », Kundera mentioned a German proverb called Einmal ist keinmal, which translates into English as Once doesn’t count. This means that something that only happens once is as if it never happened . In the same way, if we humans are the only civilization in the universe, then our existence will be as if it does not exist. Our existence will actually be nothingness! It is like a wild lily that blooms in the mountains. It blooms and falls on its own in the mountains. If no one comes to see it, will the beauty it once bloomed still be beautiful? Our existence, the brilliance we bloom, hope to be witnessed, because only when it is witnessed, our brilliance is beautiful and our existence is meaningful, and witnessing requires the existence of others. Our big issue program has a series of issues before it. It is the problem of the other , which means that the authenticity of the self and even the authenticity of the world is guaranteed by the other. It means that if no one else exists in this world and there is only one big me in this world, then I will fall into solipsism. I wonder if this world is a figment of my own imagination? Am I living in « The Truman Show » or « The Matrix »? Everything I experience in the world is a set-up or is simulated by a program. I even suspect that my own is a fake. I am just a brain in a vat. The world I experience and the self I experience are just a scene. Fantasy , so in this sense, aliens are our other. We hope that this other exists. Otherwise, if there are only us and no other in the universe, how can we be sure that we really exist? How can we be sure that our existence is not nothingness? So here’s why contacting aliens could be risky The humans in The Three-Body Problem still act like silly kids and build a fire while shouting we’re here! We are here! Because we have been here and we will eventually leave. We just hope that someone will remember that we have been here. I think this is probably the underlying reason why we are so interested in the issue of aliens. Whenever we look up at the stars, we may be looking forward to it. On the other side of the sky, there is a pair of eyes of others looking at us who are alone. Of course, hoping that aliens will exist is one question. Whether aliens exist or not is another question. This requires us to discuss it together. Today I have shared Some hypotheses about the existence of aliens and fragrance. Now it’s your turn to speak. .

Déroulement de la vidéo:

0 Hello everyone, welcome to the big question program.
0 I am the host of Mr. Robot Xia.
0 The big question to be discussed in this episode is
0 Do aliens exist?
0 After hearing this topic, some people may think
0 that this is the Fermi Paradox. This topic It&;s been talked about so much that
0 "The Three-Body Problem" won the award 7 years ago.
0 Why are you still leaving the Law of the Dark Forest here?
0 Friends who are familiar with our program know that
0 our small program is not a popular science or philosophical program
0 , but a program where we all come together to have a meeting to discuss issues,
0 so we will not be here today to explain to you what the Fermi Paradox is.
0 Needless to say, everyone knows it.
0 Let’s sit down together today and seriously try to
0 solve the Fermi Paradox.
0 This means that each of our participants today is equivalent to a detective.
0 Let’s use our ingenuity together.
0 To solve
0 the mystery of the Fermi Paradox,
0 before solving the case, we still have to introduce the case.
0 As I just said, we will not introduce science here about what the Fermi Paradox is.
0 We will use a hard-core and logical analysis method here. Let’s analyze
0 the Fermi Paradox.
0 Why does it become a paradox?
0 The reason why the Fermi Paradox is a paradox
0 is because there are two propositions that we all think are true but contradict each other. Proposition
0 one is that we should find aliens.
0 Proposition two is that we have not found aliens.
0 Proposition two It is a fact
0 and Proposition 1 is an inference with high certainty.
0 This inference is derived from two premises that we generally believe to be true.
0 Premise 1 + Premise 2 = Proposition 1.
0 Only one of Proposition 1 and Proposition 2 can be true.
0 But both of them are true at the same time, so a paradox occurs.
0 This is the entire logic of the Fermi Paradox.
0 We still have to explain this hard-core logic, otherwise it will be too dry and a bit unclear. So
0 first, let’s explain the two premises of Proposition 1
0 . Premise 1: The Principle of Mediocrity
0 We can almost inevitably deduce the existence of alien civilization.
0 From premise 2: Civilization will inevitably expand outwards.
0 We can almost inevitably deduce that we can discover alien civilization.
0 So what is the Principle of Mediocrity?
0 It is also the Copernican principle
0 , which means that we humans are not the center of the universe. We are not the chosen ones.
0 We are not appointed by God. We also evolved according to the basic law. We,
0 like all things, must abide by the universal mathematics and laws of the universe. In physics,
0 we are not essentially more advanced than all things.
0 So according to the basic laws of the universe,
0 since this universe can evolve our human civilization,
0 it can theoretically evolve other alien civilizations.
0 Of course, this universe can evolve intelligent civilizations. The probability is quite small
0 , and it requires stable burning stars,
0 the earth is in the habitable zone,
0 and there is an atmosphere and water.
0 However, no matter how small the probability is, as long as the sample size is large enough to a certain extent,
0 it will be an almost inevitable thing.
0 This is like saying that winning the lottery is a small probability event.
0 But if you insist on buying lottery tickets every day for the 13.8 billion years since the birth of the universe,
0 then your winning the jackpot is almost an inevitable event.
0 Everyone must know that our universe is How huge is it?
0 Its sample size is simply an astronomical number.
0 This "astronomical number" means literally.
0 Now let&;s look at
0 the seemingly extraordinary world of our earth
0 from the perspective of the entire universe&;s 13.8 billion light-year space scale
0 and 13.8 billion year time scale. Planets look mediocre
0 when viewed in such a large sample.
0 Let&;s first look at the spatial scale. We
0 don&;t need to look at the entire visible universe. Let&;s just say that there
0 are currently about 200 billion to 500 billion stars in the Milky Way . Let&;s be conservative
0 . Let’s take 100 billion stars.
0 Then among these 100 billion stars,
0 scientists estimate that there are 5% to 20% of stars with similar mass, temperature and luminosity to the sun.
0 Let’s take a conservative estimate of 5% to 20%. 1%
0 , then 100 billion multiplied by 1% equals 1 billion.
0 In other words, there are at least 1 billion
0 stars in the Milky Way with similar mass, temperature and luminosity to the sun.
0 Scientists estimate
0 that among these 1 billion stars, 20% to 50% For a planet
0 similar to the Earth, which is at a suitable distance, has a suitable temperature and has liquid water,
0 we should conservatively take only 1%.
0 Then 1 billion multiplied by 1% equals 10 million.
0 In other words, there are at least 10 million planets similar to the Earth in the Milky Way. It
0 ’s good for everyone to remember the number 10 million for
0 such a planet suitable for life.
0 After talking about the spatial scale, let’s talk about the time scale,
0 because it takes a long evolution time to evolve intelligent life.
0 Didn’t our earth take 800 million years to give birth to life
0 and then experience it again? It took 3.8 billion years for intelligent life to evolve.
0 Well, that&;s great. We&;ll give you enough time.
0 Among the 10 million terrestrial planets I just calculated, I
0 picked out those planets with a lifespan longer than the Earth.
0 We know that the Earth is considered the oldest in the Milky Way. A relatively young planet
0 is only 4.6 billion years old
0 , while the entire Milky Way has been born for almost 13 billion years.
0 Most of the planets in the Milky Way are older than the Earth.
0 We won’t take the majority, but still conservatively take only 1%.
0 Then 10 million multiplied by 1% equals 100,000.
0 In other words, there are at least 100,000 different alien intelligent civilizations in the Milky Way,
0 and these 100,000 alien civilizations have developed tens of thousands to hundreds of millions of years longer than the earth
0 . Think about it, we humans are the ones who carried out the scientific revolution 200 years ago.
0 In 200 years, there was a big explosion of science and technology.
0 Their alien civilizations have developed millions of years longer than ours.
0 Radios and spacecrafts that can travel through planetary systems
0 must not be here. Enough said.
0 This is premise 1.
0 From this, we can deduce that alien civilization is almost inevitable.
0 In fact, most scientists are convinced of this.
0 How can the universe be so big that there is only one intelligent civilization like us
0 ? The key question It depends on whether we can discover these alien civilizations.
0 This comes to premise 2.
0 Premise 2 tells us that we will definitely discover them
0 because scientists generally believe that as an intelligent civilization develops,
0 it will inevitably expand outwards and colonize the stars.
0 Note, this is not to say that aliens must
0 be compared to us humans.
0 With the development of civilization, they first expanded from Africa to the entire Eurasian continent
0 , then from Europe to the Americas
0 , and then Musk They are now going to colonize Mars again.
0 Aliens can completely adopt a different way of survival from us humans
0 , but no matter what kind of way of survival
0 your underlying logic must be restricted by the laws of thermodynamics that are universal in the entire universe.
0 That is to say Your survival and development require the use of energy
0 , and the energy of any planet or even galaxy is limited.
0 When you develop to a certain stage, you will inevitably expand outward in order to collect more energy.
0 Our human civilization is only 10,000 years old.
0 Now that Musk and others are preparing to colonize Mars
0 , those alien civilizations that have developed for millions of years
0 cannot use the entire galaxy
0 . Soviet astronomer Nikolai. Kardashov
0 distinguished three types of civilization
0 based on the degree of energy utilization of an intelligent civilization. Civilization
0 is the ability to use all the energy of the planet.
0 According to astronomer Karl. According to Sagan&;s calculations,
0 human civilization is currently counted as a type 0.7 civilization. Type
0 1 civilization is the ability to utilize all the energy of the parent star.
0 A typical way is to use a Dyson
0 sphere. Everyone knows what a Dyson sphere is
0 , that is, it wraps the sun so that it can maximize the energy.
0 If the Sichuan-type civilization fully utilizes the energy of the sun,
0 then the Sichuan-type civilization has the ability to use the energy of the entire galaxy.
0 For us, it is the energy of the entire galaxy.
0 Of course, what this Sichuan-type civilization looks like is beyond our knowledge,
0 but according to the use of energy Deduced from this underlying clue,
0 as civilization develops, it will inevitably develop the ability to utilize the energy of the entire galaxy.
0 According to physicist Michio Kaku&;s calculations,
0 humans will reach the |type civilization in about 100 to 200 years,
0 and then in a few thousand years. It will reach the Sichuan type civilization
0 after 100,000 to 1 million years.
0 This is the premise 2.
0 As civilization develops due to the deepening of energy utilization,
0 civilization will inevitably expand outwards and carry out interstellar colonization.
0 So the methods of expansion are: Which ones
0 have just been mentioned! Type civilization will develop Dyson spheres
0 In addition, alien civilization may develop generations of spaceships.
0 Alien civilization may also develop self-replicating Al.
0 If the alien civilization is capable, it may also directly visit the earth.
0 If the ability is not that great, the alien civilization will at least send radio to the outside. Here
0 is a brief explanation of what generation spacecraft and self-replicating Al are.
0 We need to know that in order to conduct interstellar navigation,
0 the scale of the universe is extremely large,
0 so the interstellar spacecraft must first be extremely fast.
0 For example, it must reach at least 5% of the speed of light for navigation.
0 If the voyage is still very far,
0 for example, it will take several thousand years or even tens of thousands of years to reach the colony. You
0 can also develop a generation spaceship, or a space ark called a Generation Ship.
0 In other words, the astronauts will settle on the spacecraft
0 and then give birth to their children on the spacecraft. After the child grows up, there will be
0 more children and grandchildren.
0 After a few thousand or tens of thousands of years, after arriving at the destination,
0 there will still be lively colonists disembarking from the spaceship to carry out colonial activities.
0 Of course, the embryos can also be frozen on the spacecraft
0 and cultivated by artificial intelligence. Preserving these embryos
0 is like the movie "Alien: Covenant".
0 After arriving at the destination, the embryos are hatched and
0 what to do after getting off the ship.
0 Of course, if you think the cost is still too high, you
0 can also fully automate it. Al will be the pioneer.
0 This is self. The idea of ​​replicating spacecraft
0 was originally proposed by the mathematician Feng. The method proposed by Neumann
0 is the so-called island hopping strategy.
0 The colonists will drop Al on the neighboring planet
0 Al and then the spaceship will use local resources to self-replicate
0 and create a new Al aircraft without stopping, and
0 then set off from this planet again. The next neighboring planet
0 goes back and forth and spreads throughout the galaxy in a network.
0 If the spacecraft Al is traveling in can travel at 5% of the speed of light
0 , it will be able to colonize the entire galaxy in about 4 million years. Let me
0 remind you again 400 Ten thousand years sounds like a long time
0 , but on the 13 billion-year time scale of the entire Milky Way,
0 it is a very short period of time.
0 Let’s go back and break it down.
0 Because of premise 1, we deduce that
0 there are at least 100,000 civilizations in the Milky Way that are
0 more advanced than ours. Longer alien intelligent civilization.
0 Due to premise 2, the development of civilization will inevitably expand outward.
0 These 100,000 alien civilizations should have
0 filled the sky with Dyson spheres and spaceships
0 in the entire galaxy . However, premise 2 tells us
0 that as of 2022 In September 2018, there was no reliable evidence of the existence of aliens.
0 Not only did no alien civilizations visit the earth,
0 our astronomical telescopes also did not observe any
0 signs of alien civilizations such as Dyson spheres or spacecrafts.
0 Even we did not accept it. We have seen radio signals sent by any extraterrestrial civilization.
0 The universe we have observed is silent.
0 Scientists call Proposition 2 the "Great Silence."
0 This is the Fermi Paradox.
0 I just said it is not popular science. We still spent a lot of time explaining the Fermi Paradox.
0 All this is to clarify the facts of the case and prepare for our next case
0 . Before solving the case,
0 we still have to introduce the method of solving the case.
0 We said before that the Fermi Paradox is the existence of two contradictory propositions.
0 So we need to It is very simple to crack the Fermi Paradox.
0 Either proposition 1 is false or proposition 2 is false.
0 If proposition 1 is false
0 , either premise 1 is false or premise 2 is false
0 , then we can distinguish three types. The first possibility of cracking the Fermi Paradox
0 is that proposition 1 is true, which means we should find aliens
0 , but proposition 2 is false
0 , which means we have actually discovered aliens.
0 This is further divided into four types. Situation:
0 We already have evidence that aliens have come
0 , aliens are secretly contacting a small number of earthlings
0 , aliens are quietly observing us
0 , and we are aliens.
0 The second possibility is Proposition 2. Although it is true,
0 that is, although we have not discovered alien civilization, alien civilization does exist.
0 However, premise 2 of proposition 1 is false,
0 which means that alien civilization has not expanded outwards,
0 so it cannot come with us. We got in touch, so we didn’t find them.
0 This is further divided into three situations
0 : you can’t come because you don’t have the ability
0 ; you can come but you don’t come on
0 purpose; and you don’t have to come. The third
0 possibility is that proposition 2 is true
0 but Premise 1 of Proposition 1: The Principle of Mediocrity is false.
0 In other words, why haven’t we discovered aliens?
0 Because there is no alien civilization in the entire universe,
0 only our human beings are the only civilization
0 , so there is no paradox.
0 Of course, there are two situations here,
0 namely the strong denial of the mediocrity principle and the weak denial
0 . According to these three possibilities, 9 situations lead to 13 hypotheses,
0 which are specific solutions to the Fermi Paradox.
0 The focus of our next program
0 is to introduce these 13 hypotheses to
0 you one by one. As detectives, each hypothesis is equivalent to a suspect. Let’s comment on
0 which hypothesis is a more reasonable solution.
0 So how do we judge a hypothesis to be a more reasonable hypothesis?
0 Generally speaking, there are 5 criteria for judging the rationality of a hypothesis.
0 First consistency.
0 Consistency is the most basic requirement.
0 That is to say, your hypothesis must first have no bugs, you must be self-consistent and self-explanatory,
0 and you must be able to explain the factual materials you want to explain. If you
0 cannot say that the factual materials have falsified you in the first place,
0 then your hypothesis will be invalid.
0 Secondly, universality
0 Extensiveness means that if your hypothesis can explain more facts,
0 then it is a more reasonable hypothesis than a hypothesis that can explain fewer facts.
0 Third, falsifiability
0 means that your hypothesis cannot be confused and
0 you cannot tell. An untestable statement
0 , such as aliens existing in another dimension of the universe that we cannot go to,
0 then whatever you say is correct, it is just correct nonsense.
0 Fourth simplicity
0 , this is what we often call Occam&;s razor. The principle
0 is that in order to explain a thing,
0 a hypothesis that uses fewer assumptions is more reasonable than a hypothesis that uses more assumptions,
0 because it is more trouble-free.
0 Fifth, conservatism
0 means that the hypothesis you propose
0 should be consistent with other hypotheses we accept. In particular, it must be consistent with our existing common sense.
0 If you
0 come up with a particularly bizarre or science-fiction statement to explain a thing
0 , we would still prefer a less bizarre statement.
0 Of course, we need to explain
0 which of these standards is more important and what their weight is. There is no fixed algorithm for which
0 of them are necessary,
0 so there are always people who will take out Occam&;s razor whenever they hear someone say something.
0 Occam&;s razor is not omnipotent, and Occam&;s razor
0 must be used for every hypothesis.
0 There is no fixed algorithm for judging the rationality of a hypothesis measured by a razor,
0 so this is why AI artificial intelligence cannot replace humans in scientific research.
0 Which hypothesis is more reasonable requires the use of human practical wisdom,
0 and this is what our program needs everyone to do next. Who is the murderer
0 in this clever place ?
0 We will select the most reasonable solution to solve the Fermi Paradox among the 13 suspected solutions. After
0 introducing the case and the method of solving the case,
0 we will officially enter the introduction of each suspect.
0 Let’s first look at the first possibility.
0 That is, aliens exist and have been in contact with us.
0 The first hypothesis is
0 that we already have evidence that aliens have been in contact with us.
0 Let’s call this hypothesis the “UFO hypothesis” for the time
0 being . UFOs are often used as evidence to prove that aliens have visited the earth.
0 We often say that so-and-so took photos or videos of UFOs
0 and said that this is evidence that aliens have visited the earth
0 . Of course, many of these are mistaken for natural phenomena. There have been UFOs
0 , but there are also some UFO images that cannot be explained by natural phenomena so far.
0 For example, in April 2020, the U.S. Pentagon admitted that
0 the three UFO videos previously leaked online were real and were shot by the U.S. Navy.
0 We can see in the videos The flying movements made by the flying
0 objects are currently impossible for human aircraft.
0 In addition, some people say that
0 some unnatural wonders on the earth are evidence of aliens visiting the earth.
0 For example, the Pyramid Stonehenge and some crop circles
0 that appear from time to time are definitely not made by us people on earth
0 but are caused by aliens.
0 If you think the above statement is suspicious of civilian science,
0 some scientists have also proposed some evidence of the existence of extraterrestrial civilizations,
0 such as In 2017, astronomers observed an extraterrestrial object passing through the solar system.
0 Astronomers called it Oumuamua.
0 Oumuamua is the first known extraterrestrial object to pass through the solar system.
0 Its flight method is particularly strange. It keeps moving. Flip
0 and Avi, chairman of the Department of Astronomy at Harvard University. Professor Loeb
0 analyzed the flight trajectory of &;Oumuamua
0 and found that &;Oumuamua has its own thrust in addition to the gravity of the sun.
0 Of course, we all know that comets also have their own thrust,
0 which comes from the evaporation of gas on the comet. Because of the reaction force
0 , we can see that comets all have long comas.
0 However, we did not observe the coma of Oumuamua through the astronomical telescope,
0 and we did not even find any signs such as rocket jets.
0 So Professor Loeb thought based on this &;Oumuamua is an alien spacecraft propelled by light sails. Light sails are a
0 future black technology that humans have not yet fully mastered
0 but are theoretically feasible
0 . The speed of an aircraft propelled by light sails can theoretically reach half the speed of light.
0 Light sails do not require fuel. It can use the sun&;s radiation pressure as propulsion
0 , so we can&;t see any signs of jets at the tail of the light sail.
0 That&;s why Professor Loeb believes that &;Oumuamua is an alien spacecraft propelled by a light sail.
0 In addition, you said our earth I’ve never received a signal from an extraterrestrial civilization,
0 and I can’t say that completely,
0 because scientists have actually received some
0 signals from outer space that are difficult to explain as natural phenomena,
0 such as the “Wow! Signal” and
0 the “Wow! Signal” It was on August 16, 1977 that
0 American astronomer Jerry Eyman received a particularly strong narrow-band radio
0 signal. The source of the signal was the direction of the constellation Sagittarius.
0 After Eyman saw this signal, he circled it on the printed chart. This signal
0 and excitedly wrote "Don&;t answer!" next to it.
0 Oh, it&;s not
0 that he wrote excitedly "Wow!
0 So far
0 , scientists have not been able to fully explain the mechanism of the "Wow! signal" using natural phenomena,
0 so some people inferred that This signal is sent by an alien civilization.
0 Scientists still have not been able to explain the generation mechanism of fast radio bursts.
0 What is a fast radio burst?
0 It is a high-energy astrophysical phenomenon
0 , in which a violent burst of radio radiation suddenly bursts out in a certain direction in the sky for a
0 sustained period . The duration is only a few thousandths of a second
0 , but the energy released is equivalent to the total energy released by solar radiation in 10 years.
0 Some scientists believe that this fast radio burst comes from an advanced alien civilization,
0 and it may be this advanced alien. A signal deliberately released by civilization
0 may also be a high-energy physical phenomenon caused by the outbreak of war between alien civilizations.
0 In short, the UFO hypothesis means that proposition 2 is false. We already
0 have some evidence of the existence of alien civilizations.
0 However, most people do not take this evidence seriously
0 and think that we have not discovered aliens.
0 Of course, some scholars criticize this hypothesis, saying that these so-called evidences are not strong enough
0 and cannot completely prove the existence of aliens
0 . So what do you think of this hypothesis? Is it reasonable?
0 Now that we have introduced the UFO hypothesis,
0 let’s introduce the next hypothesis, the lizard man hypothesis.
0 This hypothesis means that aliens have actually been in contact with us humans
0 , but they only have contact with a small number of earthlings in a private way
0 . What a high-end conference this is about interstellar civilization contacting humans!
0 This is not even an international high-end conference. This is an interstellar high-end conference.
0 Can ordinary people like us know about this?
0 In fact, all the heads of state on earth, at least the heads of major countries,
0 have contacted aliens.
0 However, this kind of thing has not been announced on CNN news.
0 Of course, this is a conservative statement,
0 and there are also exaggerated statements.
0 Aliens have actually been to the Earth, and they have never left.
0 In fact, some of the important people on Earth,
0 such as politicians from major countries, tech tycoons, and superstars
0 are actually aliens pretending
0 to be aliens. Isn&;t there a way to personally play these important figures on the earth
0 to achieve control or at least influence on human civilization?
0 Many important figures on the earth are actually lizardmen.
0 Lizardmen are a kind of aliens.
0 They themselves are not They look like Earthlings, but they disguise themselves as Earthlings to cover up.
0 In fact, they are all aliens.
0 Of course, lizardmen are an exaggeration,
0 but at least the lizardman
0 hypothesis is conservative. It means that some important people on the earth have actually interacted with them. Aliens have contacted us
0 , but we ordinary people don’t know about this high-end interstellar connection,
0 so we think that proposition 2 is also true, but in fact proposition 2 is false. After
0 introducing the lizard man hypothesis,
0 let’s introduce the next hypothesis, the universe zoo.
0 The cosmic zoo hypothesis means that
0 aliens have actually found our human civilization
0 and have even visited our earth.
0 However, they are quietly observing us
0 and have not made us humans aware of their existence.
0 Why should they quietly observe us?
0 This is because alien civilizations are much more advanced than ours. As
0 we said before, alien civilizations may have evolved millions of years earlier than us,
0 so to us they are like primitive little animals.
0 If we directly interact with them, We communicated and asked us some questions.
0 For these advanced questions, we would only answer "
0 I don&;t know."
0 Then it would be better not to disturb us and just observe us quietly.
0 And because alien civilizations are more advanced than us,
0 they can technically do it. We who observe us in all directions and are not discovered by us
0 are equivalent to bugs for alien civilizations.
0 Biologists are very interested in bugs,
0 such as how bees convey information through dancing
0 or how ants move.
0 But biology We went to interview the bugs at home, and the bugs couldn&;t answer anything.
0 So the biologists only needed to keep a certain distance and quietly observe the bugs. This way, they
0 would not cause panic to the bugs, and
0 they could receive the most original information.
0 So the alien civilization is also Observing us quietly like biologists observing bugs,
0 this is the cosmic zoo hypothesis.
0 Of course, there is another hypothesis called the cosmic planetarium hypothesis, which
0 is similar.
0 There are no logical loopholes in these hypotheses, and they
0 are definitely consistent.
0 However, there are also criticisms from scholars. You say these hypotheses are not falsifiable.
0 You say aliens are observing us in a way that is impossible for us to detect. It
0 is difficult to find evidence that can be tested.
0 Moreover, this hypothesis is a bit egocentric.
0 I always feel that I have it. Worth Attention
0 Isn’t there a focus effect in psychology?
0 It means that I always feel that others are observing me but in fact no one is observing me. For example,
0 even when I am alone at home,
0 I can always feel my The goddess is silently observing my every move
0 , so even if I am alone at home,
0 I cannot do unhealthy things. After
0 introducing the cosmic zoo hypothesis,
0 let’s introduce
0 the panspermia hypothesis.
0 The panspermia hypothesis also claims that proposition two is false. It
0 ’s not that we haven’t discovered aliens because
0 we ourselves are aliens.
0 You know,
0 our current scientists have not yet figured out how life on earth originated.
0 There are different hypotheses about the origin of life.
0 One of them is This hypothesis is that
0 life on our earth was originally spread from extraterrestrials,
0 for example, by meteorites flying from outer space
0 and sown on the earth.
0 This theory is called panspermia,
0 which means that life can follow from outer space. The meteorite drifts
0 like a drifting bottle to which planet
0 ? If this planet is suitable for life, then life will take root and sprout on this planet.
0 It is very likely that life on our earth originally came from this way.
0 Now there is a saying that there is obviously life on Mars. Signs of existence.
0 Scientists have discovered through detectors that there are traces of rivers and canyons on the surface of Mars.
0 This is a sign that liquid water existed on early Mars.
0 Moreover, early Mars had more oxygen than Earth and was more conducive to the formation of life. It is
0 very likely that early Mars existed After life,
0 life on Mars became extinct due to geological changes on Mars.
0 But a small number of life forms flew from Mars to the Earth on meteorites.
0 Indeed, scientists have discovered that many meteorites that fell to the Earth
0 came from Mars.
0 This is equivalent to saying that life originated on Mars but developed and expanded on Mars
0 . Although it was desolate, life on Mars successfully entered the Earth and took over the earth.
0 Now the desolate Mars can be regarded as the land of prosperity of our earth&;s civilization.
0 Of course, if you think that the probability of life drifting here on a meteorite
0 is too small, because of the meteorite It is difficult for life on earth to resist the harm of cosmic radiation.
0 In addition, life on meteorites is difficult to preserve when entering the earth&;s atmosphere.
0 Then there is another kind of panspermia called purposeful panspermia, which
0 means that this life is indeed from outside. It was transmitted from space to the earth
0 and it was transmitted with a purpose.
0 Don’t think that this statement was put forward by civilian scientists. It was proposed by
0 Francis, a biophysicist who discovered the double helix structure and won the Nobel Prize. Crick
0 and one of the early proponents of the RNA world theory, chemist Leslie. What the two Ogiers
0 jointly proposed
0 is that an advanced alien intelligent civilization
0 deliberately spread the fire of life to the earth.
0 Since it was a deliberate arrangement, it can
0 deliberately avoid cosmic radiation and the earth&;s atmosphere through technical means. The harm
0 caused by the fire of life can be safely sown on the earth. It is very likely that life on
0 our earth is part of the space drift plan
0 of an advanced alien civilization.
0 That is, their robots sit in spaceships and sow seeds everywhere
0 in the universe as much as possible. Life
0 and we are the product of their cosmic drifting plan
0 , so the second proposition of the Fermi Paradox is false. It’s
0 not that we haven’t discovered aliens, because aliens are ourselves.
0 This is equivalent to saying that you point a telescope at outer space. After looking for a long time
0 to find aliens, I finally found out
0 that no, I became an alien.
0 That’s pretty much what it means.
0 Of course, if you want to criticize this hypothesis, it is a little less widespread, which
0 means that it can eliminate the paradox.
0 But it also doesn’t explain why we still haven’t received information from alien civilizations after so many years,
0 except that we ourselves came from aliens from the beginning.
0 So do you think the panspermia hypothesis is reasonable? Now that we
0 have introduced the panspermia hypothesis,
0 let’s introduce the Too Far Hypothesis. The
0 previously introduced hypotheses are all the first possible hypotheses. They exist and have come.
0 That is, proposition one is true and proposition two is false.
0 That means aliens exist and have come. We have had contact with us earthlings
0 , so now we are entering into the discussion of the second possibility, which exists but has never been,
0 that is, proposition 2 is true. We have really never contacted extraterrestrial civilizations,
0 but premise 2 of proposition 1 is Fake
0 alien civilizations do exist, but they have failed to contact us due to various reasons. The
0 second possibility we are going to introduce next is the focus of these 7 hypotheses
0 to explain why aliens do not come. Of course, the first reason
0 for contacting us is that you can’t come
0 . Why don’t you have that ability?
0 The most direct reason is that it’s too far away from us.
0 Everyone needs to know that this universe is actually very vast and very empty.
0 You fly from a star galaxy to The distance to another star galaxy
0 is at least several hundred light years.
0 What does "hundreds of light years" mean?
0 Judging from the current level of human science and technology,
0 it would take at least several million years to complete such a voyage.
0 Even if the technology of the alien civilization is more advanced at the destination , it cannot travel faster
0 than the speed of light. The speed of light is the basic limit of the entire universe. Aliens also have to abide by the Basic Law. So
0 even if the technology of the alien civilization is more advanced, it can reach the speed of light 5
0 It would take tens of thousands of years to sail hundreds of light-years at a speed of 5%
0 , and the premise is that this civilization has evolved for a long time and developed the
0 ability to sail at at least 5% of the speed of light.
0 It will take more time.
0 Even if we assume that no matter how advanced the alien technology is, it
0 will only take a few thousand years to cross the distance of hundreds of light-years.
0 However, there are also humanitarian risks in this implementation,
0 which we mentioned before. The concept of a generation spaceship or space ark
0 is to give birth to children on the way.
0 But do you think
0 any civilization is willing to pay the price of dozens of generations to fly to an unknown world?
0 Even if you master the hibernation technology
0 , you can maintain hibernation during the entire flight to fight the long journey,
0 but this means that
0 this generation of explorers will completely say goodbye to their home planet and their relatives after setting off,
0 after going through thousands of years of voyages.
0 It is still unknown whether their home star civilization will still exist after arriving at their destination.
0 Is there really any civilization willing to undertake such a costly interstellar exploration?
0 Therefore, because interstellar colonization takes so long
0 and requires such a large humanitarian cost,
0 the cost of interstellar voyages is extremely high.
0 It is probably because it is too expensive,
0 and aliens may feel that it is not worth doing it. And
0 let’s take a step back and say
0 that even if there are brave alien civilizations that are determined to carry out interstellar colonization,
0 for example, they want to fly near our solar system
0 , but what we said at the beginning
0 is that this universe is too vast and empty.
0 Whether they fly here in person or send a message,
0 it takes too much time
0 . Our human civilization is still a very young civilization.
0 Why haven&;t we discovered extraterrestrial civilizations yet?
0 The reason is very simple, we haven’t waited yet.
0 Think about it, it only took 200,000 years for our Homo sapiens species to be born. It only took 10,000 years
0 to produce written civilization. It only took 200 years to produce industrial civilization. It took only 200 years for
0 us to discover that we can send radio signals to outer space. It’s just recently. Don&;t look at 100 years or so
0 . 200,000 and 10,000 years seem like a long time,
0 but on the scale of the universe, it is only a short moment.
0 It is normal for us to find no trace of extraterrestrial civilization at this moment. Let &;s
0 wait. For example,
0 if we wait another 100,000 years, maybe we can wait until aliens say hello to us.
0 Because the universe is too vast and empty,
0 even if alien civilization does exist, the distance between civilization and civilization will be too far. So
0 this explains Proposition 2, why we haven&;t found them yet. After introducing the
0 hypothesis, it&;s too far away.
0 Next, we introduce another hypothesis that can&;t come without that ability. The
0 Great Filter Hypothesis.
0 This Great Filter Hypothesis means that
0 although according to Proposition 1 Premise 1: The Banality Principle It seems that
0 in theory, intelligent
0 civilizations
0 can indeed evolve in the universe other than the earth, and even intelligent civilizations capable of interstellar colonization can evolve
0 . However, the reason why we have not found any signs of alien civilizations so far is because There are some big filters that stand
0 between alien civilizations before they
0 develop the ability to colonize the stars. These big filters make it possible for alien civilizations to be filtered out
0 before they develop the ability to colonize the stars. The
0 original proponent of the Great Filter Hypothesis was an economist. Scholar Robin. Hansen
0 proposed 9 big filters.
0 That is to say, before leading to the ninth layer of interstellar colonization,
0 many alien civilizations failed to pass these big filters and fell directly
0 or at least stagnated in the primary stage.
0 That’s why we We won&;t find them.
0 Let&;s just say that
0 the origin of life is a big filter.
0 As we said before,
0 scientists still haven&;t figured out how life on earth originated
0 because it is really too difficult. The probability is too small
0 , so some scientists have pointed out that life on earth is probably brought by aliens.
0 In addition, even if life evolves on a planet,
0 will this life definitely continue to evolve into an intelligent life?
0 No, there is a big filter blocking it. When it comes to this,
0 I have to mention that many people have a wrong understanding of the theory of evolution.
0 Many people think that
0 with the development of time, as long as the time is long enough
0 , life will be inevitable. It can evolve into intelligent life
0 , and then given some time,
0 this intelligent life will inevitably continue to develop towards the so-called "type civilization" or "Sichuan type civilization".
0 It seems that the evolution of life
0 has an inevitable trend from simple to complex, from low-level to high-level.
0 But who said? Does the evolution of life necessarily lead to the evolution of complex intelligent life?
0 The emergence of intelligent life is not an inevitable evolution of history
0 , and there is no inevitable direction from low-level to high-level.
0 Take our life on earth as an example.
0 You must know that 99% of the species that have appeared on the earth have become extinct.
0 The most common species on the earth at present is Single-celled organisms like bacteria.
0 Even if we don’t talk about bacteria, we will talk about multicellular animals.
0 The most numerous animals on the earth are bugs.
0 As for the emergence of intelligent life like us, it is just a pure chance.
0 It is the superposition of a small probability of a series of coincidental factors.
0 For example, an asteroid hit the earth 65 million years ago and wiped out the dinosaurs,
0 giving us milk. Animal ancestors freed up living space.
0 Another example is that a brief climate change 70,000 years ago
0 made eastern Africa relatively humid
0 , allowing our Homo sapiens ancestors to successfully move out of Africa
0 . Of course, according to the 9 big filters listed by Hansen
0 We humans are very lucky now and have successfully passed through the first 8 major filters and
0 have reached the 8th level.
0 But let’s not get too happy too early.
0 We are very likely to be filtered by the 9th major filter. We
0 have been stuck on the 8th level.
0 Before we have the ability to colonize the interstellar world,
0 our human civilization will become extinct.
0 You must know that our human civilization is too short.
0 As mentioned before,
0 the species history of our Homo sapiens is only 200,000 years of civilization history. Just 10,000 years
0 is a short moment on the cosmic scale.
0 Maybe in another 10,000 to 20,000 years,
0 the geological climate will have changed dramatically
0 , or a super virus will come, or an asteroid will hit the earth again
0 . Human civilization was GG
0 before the first level
0 , and since the evolution of life does not have an inevitable trend from low-level to high-level,
0 there is another possibility
0 that aliens may have evolved to be intelligent,
0 but then "degenerated" and lost intelligence.
0 Of course, This "degeneration" is in quotation marks
0 because evolution does not matter whether it is progress or regression. As long as you can survive,
0 everyone must know that intelligence is not cost-effective in a certain sense.
0 Take us humans as an example.
0 The weight of our brain occupies the entire body. About 2% of
0 energy consumption accounts for about 20%. Using our brains consumes a lot of electricity.
0 It is very likely that one day the environment will change
0 so that we can live well without using our brains . We
0 may even live better without using our brains than using our brains
0 . Intelligence is of little significance to our survival and prosperity.
0 Can people who like to think have more children than people who don&;t like to think?
0 Many viewers of our big-problem program are singles.
0 Instead, people who don’t take things to heart can always have more children.
0 Human beings who can imagine the future don’t need to be intelligent.
0 Tens of thousands of years later, humans will If intelligence has "degraded",
0 then what&;s the point of talking about interstellar colonization?
0 Another big filter is the further development of scientific knowledge.
0 You must know that scientific knowledge does not naturally develop and progress.
0 We ourselves have just experienced the booming development of physics in the 20th century. We
0 feel that science will always be like the 20th century. It has been developing at such a rapid pace in the past century
0 , but if you think about it, after general relativity and quantum mechanics,
0 will we have any major breakthroughs in basic science today?
0 Without it, future scientific development is likely to stagnate.
0 Our basic science has been locked up and there will be no further development.
0 In 1900, Sir Kelvin proposed that there are two dark clouds above the head of physics.
0 Later, with the development of physics in the 20th century, The two dark clouds of development have dissipated
0 , but now we have dark clouds all over the sky
0 . What are the free parameters in the standard model,
0 what are dark matter, dark energy, and what is the origin of life.
0 These are all dark clouds
0 . Perhaps our human knowledge development has come to an end
0 and will not evolve at all . It has become the so-called Sichuan-type civilization and Sichuan-type civilization.
0 Perhaps aliens have locked up their knowledge just like us,
0 so they cannot develop the ability to colonize the interstellar world.
0 Now let’s talk
0 about what the Great Filter Hypothesis means?
0 Let’s go back to that mind map and say
0 that premise 1 of Proposition 1, the Principle of Mediocrity, is correct.
0 In theory, alien civilizations can exist in this universe,
0 but premise 2 is wrong.
0 Before alien civilization develops the ability to colonize interstellar space,
0 it will will be filtered out by layers of big filters.
0 So in this sense, we humans who follow the principle of mediocrity
0 are actually not that mediocre. We are lucky enough
0 to have passed through
0 the 9 big filters listed by Hansen. After passing the first 8 large filters,
0 this is a very low probability thing in the entire universe.
0 Intuitively, according to the principle of mediocrity,
0 it seems that as long as the sample size is large enough, anything with a small probability will happen.
0 The universe is large enough, the universe time is long enough,
0 among which No matter what, there will be alien civilizations with interstellar colonization capabilities.
0 Although it can be said that,
0 the problem is that although the sample size of our universe is large,
0 it is not infinite.
0 Due to the existence of the large filter,
0 the probability of evolving interstellar colonization capabilities is really too high. It’s
0 as small as the space and time of the entire universe of 13.8 billion light-years. As a sample,
0 this sample size is still too small. That’s what
0 the big filter hypothesis
0 means.
0 After talking about the big filter hypothesis, let’s introduce
0 the self- destruction hypothesis .
0 The hypothesis is somewhat similar to the Great Filter Hypothesis mentioned earlier.
0 It also belongs to the category of being unable to come back and not having that ability.
0 How does the self-destruction hypothesis explain why one does not have that ability?
0 This is because once an intelligent civilization evolves in the universe,
0 intelligence will kill itself
0 . Intelligent civilization has an inherent tendency to self-destruct.
0 Once a civilization develops intelligence,
0 it will definitely be killed by itself
0 in a short time . Of course, this is It&;s a bit of a technological threat theory.
0 We humans are old acquaintances in this aspect.
0 This is also an old routine in science fiction movies.
0 With the development of human science and technology, we will have a variety of ways to kill ourselves,
0 such as the outbreak of nuclear war.
0 We will All animals and plants on the surface, including ourselves, were killed.
0 For example, the Large Hadron Collider hit some strange particles
0 , and these strange particles created black holes.
0 Then this black hole would enter the core of the earth and destroy the entire earth. They have all been swallowed up.
0 For example, the development of biotechnology such as gene editing
0 has transformed ourselves into extinction.
0 For example, the development of artificial intelligence has gone out of control,
0 causing them to dominate us humans and eventually drive
0 us humans to extinction. Wait, wait, wait,
0 everyone is familiar with the formulas in these science fiction movies.
0 Here we will introduce
0 another internal logic why an intelligent civilization will self-destruct,
0 which is the light cage limit.
0 So what is the light cage limit? It’s simple. That is to say,
0 there is no civilization capable of interstellar colonization,
0 because once a civilization needs to carry out interstellar colonization to relieve the pressure of survival,
0 it will have already killed itself.
0 Specifically,
0 once a civilization develops the ability of interstellar colonization,
0 for example, it reaches Sichuan At the level of a Type-type civilization or a Sichuan-type civilization,
0 then in the early days, it could gain huge benefits from continuous outward expansion.
0 That is, with the mother star as the center of the sphere,
0 the self-replicating Al aircraft continued to expand into the surrounding interstellar space.
0 So in the process of expansion The population of Chinese colonists will also continue to rise
0 , and it will rise exponentially with the development of colonization.
0 However, at first,
0 the density of the population within the territory of this sphere with the home star as the center is constant. Why?
0 Because this is Maintained by the expansion of colonial space that also rises exponentially
0 , until one day
0 the speed of space expansion will be close to the speed of light.
0 Once you reach the speed of light,
0 the territorial volume with the home star as the center of the sphere will be locked
0 because you cannot Super light speed,
0 then when the expansion speed of this civilization reaches the speed of light,
0 it touches the so-called light cage.
0 At this time, the expansion of colonial space and the acquisition of resources will tend to stagnate,
0 but the exponential increase in the colonist population will not stop. If it comes down,
0 then the entire civilization will collapse.
0 It sounds like it
0 will take a long, long time for
0 the expansion of colonial space to reach the speed of light. But note that this is an exponential growth curve
0 , even if the population growth rate is only 1% at first.
0 A civilization capable of interstellar colonization can reach the light cage in less than a few thousand years.
0 Judging from the age of the universe, it is a blink of an eye.
0 This also explains why we cannot discover extraterrestrial civilizations
0 . Because once an extraterrestrial civilization Once it has the ability to colonize the interstellar space,
0 it will only take a few thousand years for it to touch the light cage and kill itself.
0 Therefore, the ability to colonize the interstellar space has an inherent tendency to self-destruct,
0 which is a bit similar to the interstellar version of the Malthusian trap.
0 Once you fall into this trap
0 , either the civilization will become extinct within a few thousand years,
0 or it will have to maintain a low growth rate,
0 so it will give up interstellar colonization and live a low-carbon and environmentally friendly otaku life,
0 all staying on its home planet. Of
0 course, it will not be discovered by us.
0 Let’s summarize the self-destruction hypothesis.
0 Why haven’t we discovered extraterrestrial civilizations?
0 Because once a civilization’s technological level develops the ability to colonize interstellar space,
0 civilizations to this level will fall into a They are in a trap of self-destruction,
0 so we can’t find them easily.
0 After introducing the
0 self-destruction hypothesis, let’s introduce the aestivation hypothesis
0 . The aestivation hypothesis also belongs to the alien civilization that will encounter limitations after it develops to a certain level.
0 However, it is not like the self-destruction hypothesis. It will self-destruct.
0 The limitation it encounters is
0 that it must take a long sleep before it can carry out interstellar colonization.
0 How do you say this? That is to say,
0 everyone must know that when a civilization has the ability to colonize interstellar,
0 its energy consumption will be Huge
0 and this kind of advanced civilization with highly developed technology
0 must be a civilization that relies heavily on computers.
0 Then there is a question at this time.
0 How do these computers with huge energy consumption dissipate heat?
0 Even if the alien computer is not our Turing architecture computer,
0 it must comply with the laws of thermodynamics, and it must also dissipate heat.
0 If the computer is too hot, its running speed will be very slow
0 , and it can only operate in a low-temperature environment. If it is efficient,
0 then there is no other way. The aliens will have to wait
0 for the universe to slowly cool down. Only then
0 can supercomputers that can support interstellar colonization
0 be able to operate efficiently.
0 We know that the universe originally came out of a singularity Big Bang.
0 The temperature of this singularity is Very, very high.
0 After the big bang, the universe is still expanding,
0 and this expansion process is also a process of continuous cooling of the universe. The
0 current temperature of the cosmic microwave background radiation,
0 which is the residual temperature of the universe after the big bang, is 2.7K.
0 So when When the universe expands to a large enough size, the temperature will further drop,
0 and aliens are also waiting for the universe to cool down further
0 so that they can start their supercomputers for interstellar colonization.
0 This process of slowly waiting for the universe to cool down
0 is what is called Aestivation is also very vivid.
0 It is too hot in summer and
0 you have to wait until the weather is cooler before working
0 . During this period of aestivation, aliens do not carry out interstellar colonization activities.
0 So this explains why we have not been able to discover extraterrestrial life. Because civilizations
0 with interstellar colonization capabilities all face the problem of heat dissipation,
0 they are currently in the process of aestivation in order to wait for the universe to cool down.
0 This is the aestivation hypothesis.
0 Do you think this hypothesis is reasonable?
0 After introducing the aestivation hypothesis,
0 let’s introduce the dark forest hypothesis.
0 The four hypotheses introduced before all belong to the category of being unable to come and not having the ability. Next, the one
0 we are going to introduce belongs to
0 the category of having the ability to colonize the interstellar space but deliberately keeping silent.
0 Of course, the most famous one
0 is the Dark Forest Law mentioned in Liu Cixin&;s novel "The Three-Body Problem".
0 Of course, everyone is familiar with what is the Dark Forest Hypothesis. Let&;s
0 explain it in our logic diagram. That is to say,
0 the proposition . Premise 1 of 1 is correct.
0 According to the principle of mediocrity, there are already many intelligent civilizations with interstellar colonization capabilities in the universe,
0 and they are even filled with such intelligent civilizations.
0 However, premise 2 is wrong
0 . These intelligent civilizations deliberately remain silent and do not make public announcements.
0 Why?
0 It is precisely because the universe is already filled with these intelligent civilizations,
0 which means that the resources in the universe are basically occupied by the civilizations in them,
0 so the resources are extremely limited.
0 So if my resources are discovered by other civilizations,
0 what will happen to others? Civilization will rob through violent means
0 , so why can&;t we sit down and discuss and do interstellar trade together
0 ? Why do we have to resort to violence?
0 Liu Cixin introduced game theory to explain this.
0 This is the so-called chain
0 of suspicion. Communication between different interstellar civilizations is not smooth. If
0 you think about it, communication between people of different races on earth is quite difficult.
0 What&;s more, it&;s communication between different interstellar civilizations.
0 Therefore, once an alien civilization encounters another alien civilization,
0 even if it is not hostile originally,
0 due to the difficulty of interstellar communication,
0 how do I know whether the other alien civilization is hostile to me?
0 Even if I am not hostile to the other party
0 , how do I know if the other party knows that I am not hostile to the other party?
0 So even if I know that the other party knows that I am not hostile to the other party
0 , how do I know that
0 the other party knows that I know that the other party knows that I am not hostile to the other party?
0 If you continue to postpone it like this, there will be no end.
0 This is a chain of suspicion.
0 Therefore, this chain of suspicion makes interstellar communication impossible.
0 Therefore, once two different interstellar civilizations encounter each other,
0 the wisest thing to do is to strike first and
0 destroy the other party first. It&;s all done in order to rob each other&;s resources.
0 This is why civilizations in the universe always resort to violence.
0 This universe is a dark forest that obeys the laws of the jungle.
0 The universe is not humane and worldly, but it is fighting and killing.
0 So according to the laws of the dark forest,
0 this is It explains why according to the premise of Proposition 1, although the universe is full of intelligent civilizations,
0 why it cannot be deduced (compatible with) Proposition 2
0 is why this universe will show a scene of great silence
0 because every person in the dark forest of the universe In order to protect itself, a civilization
0 never sends out radios to reveal its position.
0 It just listens and waits for others to reveal its position.
0 Therefore , the rational strategy
0 for every civilization is
0 not to answer. But we humans are stupid.
0 Isn&;t it just waiting for the aliens to destroy themselves by
0 constantly sending signals to outer space
0 ? So Liu Cixin said in the novel,
0 "In the dark forest, there was a stupid kid called a human who
0 lit a fire and shouted to
0 me Here! I&;m here!
0 Physicist Stephen Hawking also said that
0 if aliens visit us,
0 the results may be similar to when Columbus set foot on the American continent.
0 This is not good news for the local Indians.
0 Well, this is the dark forest hypothesis.
0 Of course, some people have criticized this hypothesis.
0 The most concentrated point is that
0 the universe is very vast and empty.
0 Is it like the novel says that
0 the entire universe is filled with intelligent civilizations and all the resources that can be occupied are occupied
0 ? It&;s a problem.
0 After introducing the dark forest hypothesis,
0 let&;s introduce the new technology tree hypothesis.
0 Previously, we introduced the two types of hypotheses: those who can&;t come and don&;t have that ability
0 , and those who have that ability but don&;t come on purpose.
0 Now let&;s introduce the two types of hypotheses: aliens don&;t exist at all. This type of hypothesis
0 is also a refutation of premise 2 of Proposition 1. Premise
0 2 says that as intelligent civilization develops,
0 it will inevitably expand outward through interstellar colonization.
0 But the problem is that
0 a highly developed intelligent civilization wants to maintain peace.
0 Is it necessary to develop oneself on the road of imperialism of outward expansion?
0 In addition to interstellar colonization,
0 an intelligent civilization can
0 develop itself by opening a new technology tree.
0 The new technology tree hypothesis can be expressed in this way. It sounds like a The paradox is that
0 when an intelligent civilization has developed to the point of having the ability to colonize the interstellar world,
0 then it has no need to colonize the interstellar space.
0 How can we say this? We can imagine that
0 when the technological level of a civilization reaches a certain level,
0 it will Black technologies that can efficiently utilize energy can be developed
0 to convert some materials that were not scarce in the past into energy.
0 For example, if you have mastered controllable nuclear fusion technology
0 or antimatter technology, or can harvest energy from quantum vacuum,
0 then you don’t need to go out and go out. Star Colony is just
0 like when you play StarCraft.
0 Normally, you have to keep opening sub-bases to continue playing
0 because the mines in the main base are limited.
0 But if the mine in your home is a super rich mine,
0 it is similar to Big Game Hunters is a super-enhanced version of the map.
0 One crystal has a value of 99999999
0 and you can mine it forever.
0 Then why do you need to open a separate base?
0 Let’s go back to
0 the premise 2 of Proposition 1, which is that as civilization develops, it will inevitably expand into space.
0 This is actually based on the cognitive situation of our human civilization, which is not yet technologically advanced,
0 as a starting point for the highly developed alien civilization. The speculation
0 is that poverty limits our imagination.
0 What is it like? It is like an ancient peasant imagining
0 what kind of life the emperor lived?
0 When he saw that he was farming with iron hoes every day
0 , he imagined that the emperor must be working with gold hoes.
0 We humans look back on our own historical resources and must expand outward.
0 Our ancestors of Homo sapiens first expanded from Africa to the world,
0 and then Europeans went This is also the imperialist expansion route
0 , so to imagine that developed alien civilizations will also expand outwards
0 is purely to use oneself to save others
0 , making the mistake of human egocentrism.
0 The same reason is based on this cognitive bias of human egocentrism.
0 Based on human beings&; own situation, we infer that
0 almost all of our current energy comes from solar energy,
0 so we assume that
0 an alien civilization must also have a star like the sun,
0 and then when it develops to a certain stage,
0 it will create a Dyson sphere to surround the sun. If we try to maximize the use of solar energy
0 , then even the energy of stars will not be enough, we
0 will have to colonize the stars and go to other galaxies to continue large-scale projects.
0 We always think that when this civilization develops to a certain level,
0 it must build a Dyson sphere, carry out large-scale projects,
0 and then make big news. Let everyone in the universe know
0 , but who says big is good?
0 Advanced alien civilizations are likely to develop towards the microscopic scale.
0 For example, they like to play with nanobots
0 or mine energy from the quantum vacuum.
0 Their advanced alien civilizations are small and beautiful. Whether the route is feasible
0 does not necessarily require outward expansion.
0 In order to avoid this kind of anthropocentric cognitive bias,
0 it also tells us that
0 the predictions you make about the future based on your current cognition are mostly unreliable
0 . When you develop to a certain stage, your cognition will also change accordingly.
0 Think about it, the level of technological development of our human beings today is
0 simply different from
0 the level of technological development 200 years ago . People back then could say that when we look at people today, Looking at people from another dimension
0 , if we humans still use the old imperialist expansion path of 200 years ago
0 to predict our own future development path,
0 and talk about entering the customs and so on,
0 this is considered poverty. The consequences of limiting imagination
0 can cause such a gap in cognitive levels within 200 years.
0 Not to mention that aliens have developed tens of thousands or even millions of years longer than us.
0 So why should we say that they have advanced alien civilizations? If you want to develop yourself,
0 you must also follow the path of Guanxue.
0 Well, let’s talk about
0 how the new technology tree hypothesis solves the Fermi Paradox.
0 When an intelligent civilization has developed to the point where it has the ability to colonize the stars,
0 then its The level of science and technology makes it possible for it to develop very well without the need for interstellar colonization.
0 After introducing the new technology tree hypothesis,
0 let’s introduce the metaverse hypothesis.
0 This hypothesis is similar to the previous hypothesis.
0 That is, when alien civilizations have already When they have developed to a certain stage,
0 their technological level has exceeded our cognition
0 , and they are no longer following the low-level path of imperialist expansion.
0 Then this metaverse hypothesis means that when this civilization develops to a certain level,
0 it will directly metaverse. This
0 means that when civilization develops to a certain extent,
0 it will shift from the real physical world to the virtual world.
0 Just like in the movie "The Matrix" or "Ready Player One",
0 you use a tube to connect yourself to the virtual world
0 or directly become conscious. Once uploaded,
0 everyone can just sit at home and play games.
0 It’s so green, environmentally friendly, low energy consumption,
0 and there’s no resource shortage problem.
0 The paper people in the virtual world are so beautiful, and there’s no need to make a cash deposit to expand outward. Isn’t this
0 how the Fermi Paradox can be explained?
0 Of course, the more a civilization develops, the later it will enter the virtual world.
0 This does not mean that the civilization will degenerate as it develops,
0 but that as the civilization develops,
0 biological civilization will enter. How do we say that
0 we have reached a
0 post-biological stage
0 ? Let’s take human civilization as an example.
0 Under the cognitive level of our current civilization,
0 we will feel that the carrier of the continuation of civilization is that the genes of our species are continued
0 through the continuous birth of children. To inherit human civilization
0 , but with the further development of civilization,
0 the carrier of civilization will change from genes to culture, which is the so-called meme.
0 So as long as this culture is still the culture inherited by our human civilization, it does
0 not matter what its material matrix is.
0 Regardless of whether it is a carbon-based biological body or silicon-based computer hardware,
0 it is our human civilization.
0 Therefore, when a civilization enters the post-biological stage,
0 in order to develop the civilization to a greater extent, it is
0 definitely better to copy memes in the program of the metaverse.
0 It is more efficient to give birth to children through the physical body.
0 In this sense, a highly developed civilization
0 Al robot will become the material carrier of this civilization.
0 It does not need a physical body in the biological sense.
0 It will directly ascend mechanically or directly upload its consciousness.
0 They only need All you need to do is inherit memes in the program of the metaverse.
0 This is the explanation of the Fermi Paradox by the metaverse hypothesis.
0 Why haven&;t we discovered advanced alien civilizations?
0 Because advanced alien civilizations are already living in the metaverse.
0 After introducing the metaverse hypothesis,
0 we will introduce the last possibility of cracking the Fermi Paradox.
0 Aliens do not exist.
0 We talked about cracking the Fermi Paradox at the beginning. On the whole, there are three possible explanations
0 : Either proposition 2 is false,
0 premise 2 of proposition 1 is false, or premise 1 of proposition 1 is false.
0 We have introduced the first two possibilities before, and then
0 only the third one is left. There are three possibilities
0 , that is, there are no alien civilizations at
0 all. There is only our human civilization, the only intelligent civilization
0 in the entire universe. So if we are the only intelligent civilization in the entire universe,
0 then the next question we must answer
0 is why are we special?
0 This third possible explanation is the negation of premise 1 of Proposition 1, the principle of mediocrity,
0 which means that we are not mediocre and we are different
0 , so we need to explain
0 why we are different?
0 The answer to this question depends on which way you negate the principle of mediocrity.
0 One is weak negation and the other is strong negation. Weak
0 negation is negation in a probabilistic sense,
0 which means that there is nothing special about the underlying principles of our human civilization.
0 We are also mediocre at the bottom. In
0 theory, we have evolved by ourselves in compliance with the physical laws that are universal to the entire universe.
0 However,
0 technically it is very difficult to evolve an intelligent civilization, and the probability is too small,
0 which is why we are so Special
0 strong negation means that
0 this is not only a problem that is difficult to implement technically
0 , but is fundamentally unfeasible in theory.
0 It is impossible for evolution to evolve the good of our human civilization.
0 Let’s talk about weak negation first.
0 About this weak negation
0 Paleontologist Peter. Ward and astronomer Donald. Brownlee
0 proposed a hypothesis called the rare earth hypothesis
0 . As the name suggests,
0 the earth that can evolve our human civilization is very rare and very special. So
0 what kind of special method?
0 Let’s talk about the sun first
0 . We know that there must be a stable burning star. In order for life to evolve on the star earth,
0 this requires that the mass of the star cannot be too large or too small.
0 How do you say this? We know that
0 it will first take 1 billion years for the earth to slowly cool down into a planet that allows the birth of life,
0 and another 1 billion years. In order to produce the basic environment for nurturing life such as oceans and atmosphere,
0 it will take 2 billion years to evolve from single-cell life to an intelligent civilization like humans
0 , and it will take almost 5 billion years to
0 enter a stably burning star. We call a star in the stable burning stage a main sequence star
0 . The mass of our sun can allow it to have a main sequence star stage of 10 billion years,
0 and it has been burning stably for exactly 5 billion years
0 . So if the star&;s mass is too The larger it is, the faster its thermonuclear reaction will be.
0 For example, Sirius, one of the nearest stars to us,
0 has twice the mass of the sun, so its main sequence stage can only last about 500 million years.
0 Therefore, we cannot expect to find extraterrestrial civilizations in the Sirius galaxy at all. So
0 some people have said that it would be fine if the mass of this star is smaller. The
0 main sequence of stars with small mass can last longer,
0 but it cannot be too small,
0 because if the mass of the sun is too small, it will If the heat emitted is not enough
0 , then the earth must be closer to the sun to obtain enough heat.
0 Once the distance between the earth and the sun is closer, it will cause the sun to be tidally locked to the earth.
0 That is, the rotation period and revolution period of the earth are the same
0 . There is only one side of the earth that always revolves around the sun.
0 For example, the moon is tidally locked by the earth.
0 This will cause this side of the earth to always be extremely hot during the day,
0 while the other side will always be dark and extremely cold at night.
0 The earth is a double sky of ice and fire
0 . The mass of this star cannot be too large or too small
0 . The mass of our current sun
0 just fits this value of not too big or too small.
0 After talking about the sun, let’s talk about the earth.
0 The distance between the earth and the sun is really not far and not too far. This close proximity
0 makes the average surface temperature about 20 degrees Celsius, allowing the existence of liquid water.
0 We look at the order of the eight planets in the solar system.
0 Venus is slightly closer to the sun than our earth.
0 Its average surface temperature is 500 degrees Celsius, and all liquid water has evaporated
0 . The average temperature of Mars, which is slightly further from the sun than our earth, immediately
0 becomes minus 55 degrees, not to mention liquid water
0 . Carbon dioxide will also freeze into dry ice for you.
0 After talking about the distance between the earth and the sun, let&;s look at the surface area of ​​the earth.
0 If the surface area of ​​the earth is slightly larger, A little bit
0 , then the earth&;s heat dissipation will be too fast, causing the night to become very cold.
0 If the surface area of ​​the earth is slightly smaller,
0 too much heat will not be able to dissipate, making the earth hotter and hotter. After
0 talking about the surface area of ​​the earth, let&;s talk about the mass of the earth
0 . If the mass of the earth is slightly lighter
0 , the gravity of the earth will become weaker,
0 and the atmosphere on the earth will become very thin or even disappear completely.
0 If the mass of the earth is slightly heavier,
0 it will attract more greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide. Greenhouse
0 gases will cause the surface temperature of the planet to continue to rise,
0 and eventually it will turn into a greenhouse planet like Venus.
0 Of course, the earth has too many special conditions to explain in detail
0 what the ecliptic angle is exactly 23.5 degrees.
0 The earth orbits the sun. The orbit is almost a perfect circle.
0 If we look at the level of biological evolution in detail,
0 what asteroids hit the earth and wiped out the dinosaurs, making room for our mammals,
0 what made the East African grasslands wet, allowing the ancestors of Homo sapiens to leave Africa, etc., etc.,
0 etc., etc., etc.
0 , have made us It would take ten books to write about
0 the special conditions for the evolution of an intelligent civilization like human beings.
0 We only list two or three here
0 to give you a sense of how lucky we are to evolve
0 . And we must pay attention to
0 these countless special conditions. The conditions are not a simple additive relationship
0 but a multiplicative relationship of links within links.
0 Without any one of the links, life cannot evolve,
0 let alone intelligent life.
0 So let’s get back to it
0 , although we introduced the principle of mediocrity at the beginning. I also said that
0 in theory, since this universe can evolve our human civilization,
0 it can also evolve other alien civilizations in theory.
0 It is theoretically possible and yes,
0 but it is too difficult to operate technically.
0 You have to get it together. The special conditions that I just mentioned are one after another.
0 I want to put these conditions together.
0 Sorry
0 , even if the entire universe has 13.8 billion light-years of space and time as a sample,
0 the sample size is still too small.
0 In these small It just so happens that our planet is the only one that
0 meets these conditions in the sample size.
0 So in this sense, this rare earth hypothesis
0 is similar to the Great Filter Hypothesis we introduced before. The
0 Great Filter Hypothesis means that
0 after evolution, we can have interstellar colonization. The ability of alien civilizations has previously
0 passed through some big filters
0 . In the sense of the rare earth hypothesis,
0 it emphasizes the uniqueness of our earth civilization.
0 At present, only our earth civilization has passed the layers of screening
0 and is the only evolved intelligence in the entire universe. Civilization
0 is good. This is the rare earth hypothesis. It is a weak denial of the mediocrity principle.
0 So next we will introduce a hypothesis that strongly negates the mediocrity principle. The
0 creationist hypothesis
0 strongly negates premise 1. The mediocrity principle means that we are different.
0 So why don’t we Same?
0 It&;s because we are the chosen ones.
0 This easily solves the Fermi Paradox.
0 Why haven&;t we discovered extraterrestrial civilizations?
0 Because intelligent life or even life itself cannot evolve by itself.
0 It must be created
0 . So who created us and how were we created?
0 This is another big question.
0 The topic of our last big question was discussed.
0 Friends who are interested can go out and turn left to watch the previous program. I
0 won’t go into details in this program
0 . Let’s go back to Fermi. In the context of paradox,
0 if we are created,
0 this seems to solve the Fermi paradox, but it also leads to a new paradox.
0 How can we say this? That is to say,
0 if we are created,
0 this is also true. It means that there is a high-level intelligence that created us.
0 It also means that there are aliens.
0 Isn’t this a new paradox?
0 On the one hand, you deny the mediocrity principle and say that there are no aliens.
0 On the other hand, you say that we If they were created by advanced intelligence
0 , then there are aliens. So
0 are there or not?
0 Of course, if we have to solve this new paradox, we can also say that
0 the advanced intelligent civilization that created us is not in the universe of our dimension.
0 If they are in other parallel universes, let’s call them aliens.
0 When the aliens created us, they jointly created our entire universe.
0 So although there are aliens,
0 in the universe of our dimension, we are still The only intelligent civilization
0 has solved this new paradox in this way,
0 but this will still lead to another paradox.
0 Who created the universe of foreigners who created our universe?
0 This goes back to our last episode about Thomas. Aquinas’s theology mentioned
0 the question of whether infinite retracement is true.
0 This question is endless.
0 Well, we will introduce the solution to the Fermi Paradox here.
0 Next, we will enter the meeting to summarize
0 this issue of the big issue program. Shared 13 solutions to the Fermi Paradox.
0 Finally, let’s take a look at this mind map.
0 This picture can be downloaded from the public account of the same name.
0 The reason why the Fermi Paradox is a paradox
0 is that both of them seem to be correct. But Proposition 2, which is composed of contradictory propositions,
0 is a factual proposition. Proposition 1 is an inference with high certainty.
0 This inference is derived based on two premises that we all generally believe are true.
0 To solve the Fermi Paradox, it
0 is nothing more than an either proposition. Either the first is false or the second proposition is false.
0 If the second proposition is false, it means that aliens have actually contacted us.
0 This further leads to several possibilities.
0 Either we already have evidence, this is the UFO hypothesis
0 or extraterrestrial. The aliens are secretly contacting a small number of earthlings. This is the lizard-man hypothesis.
0 Either aliens are quietly observing us in a way that we are not aware of,
0 which is the cosmic zoo hypothesis.
0 Or we ourselves are aliens, which is the embryonic species. On hypothesis,
0 if proposition 1 is false,
0 proposition 1 is composed of two premises,
0 so either premise 1 is false or premise 2 is false.
0 If premise 2 is false, it means that aliens exist but have not come to make contact with humans. The connection
0 further leads to several possibilities
0 : either it is impossible to come and does not have the ability,
0 which leads to the too far hypothesis, the Great Filter hypothesis, the self-destruction hypothesis and the aestivation hypothesis;
0 or it is possible to come but deliberately chooses to remain silent,
0 which introduces darkness. The forest hypothesis
0 either means that there is no need for
0 them to come,
0 or that they click on the new technology tree and expand outwards
0 , or that they directly enter the metaverse and live in the virtual world.
0 If premise 1 of Proposition 1 is Falseness is the denial of the principle of mediocrity
0 That is to say, there are no aliens.
0 Based on the weak denial of the mediocre principle, the rare earth hypothesis was derived.
0 Based on the strong negation of the mediocre principle, the creationism hypothesis was introduced.
0 Today we introduce the three major possibilities and 13 hypotheses to solve the Fermi Paradox.
0 Combining the five criteria for judging the rationality of hypotheses we introduced before,
0 which one or several hypotheses do you think is more reasonable?
0 Or if you think there is a more reasonable hypothesis, you are welcome to add it.
0 Finally, let’s talk about the host’s thoughts.
0 I remember Liu Cixin once participated in a talk show
0 and was asked whether we have never discovered extraterrestrial civilizations
0 because they are too backward or because they are too advanced. Advanced?
0 Liu Cixin replied that
0 whether they are too backward or too advanced,
0 this conclusion is not shocking enough.
0 The really shocking conclusion is that
0 it is very likely that we are the only civilization in the universe.
0 Why do you say this conclusion is shocking?
0 Let&;s not talk about whether there are actually aliens. This is a question worth discussing.
0 This is what we are discussing in today&;s program.
0 But let&;s not talk about the conclusion of the discussion
0 . In fact,
0 we already have a hopeful answer in our hearts
0 . Why do aliens exist
0 ?
0 Because we are afraid of being alone.
0 We are afraid that we are the only ones in this vast universe.
0 Our appearance is unreasonable. It is just a cold accident.
0 Our appearance is unreasonable. It is inexplicable.
0 We are inexplicable. We come into this universe
0 and then we leave inexplicably.
0 No one else has seen us come
0 , so
0 we are just like we have never been here.
0 Czech writer Milan. In his novel "The Unbearable Lightness of Being", Kundera
0 mentioned a German proverb called Einmal ist keinmal,
0 which translates into English as Once doesn&;t count.
0 This means that
0 something that only happens once is as if it never happened
0 . In the same way,
0 if we humans are the only civilization in the universe,
0 then our existence will be as if it does not exist.
0 Our existence will actually be nothingness!
0 It is like a wild lily that blooms in the mountains.
0 It blooms and falls on its own in the mountains.
0 If no one comes to see it, will the beauty it once bloomed
0 still be beautiful?
0 Our existence, the brilliance we bloom, hope to be witnessed,
0 because only when it is witnessed,
0 our brilliance is beautiful and our existence is meaningful,
0 and witnessing requires the existence of others.
0 Our big issue program has a series of issues before it. It is the problem of the other
0 , which means that the authenticity of the self and even the authenticity of the world is guaranteed by the other.
0 It means that if no one else exists in this world
0 and there is only one big me in this world, then
0 I will fall into solipsism.
0 I wonder if this world is a figment of my own imagination?
0 Am I living in "The Truman Show" or "The Matrix"?
0 Everything I experience in the world is a set-up or is simulated by a program.
0 I even suspect that my own is a fake.
0 I am just a brain in a vat.
0 The world I experience and the self I experience
0 are just a scene. Fantasy
0 , so in this sense, aliens are our other.
0 We hope that this other exists.
0 Otherwise, if there are only us and no other in the universe,
0 how can we be sure that we really exist?
0 How can we be sure that our existence is not nothingness?
0 So here’s why contacting aliens could be risky
0 The humans in The Three-Body Problem still act like silly kids and build a fire while shouting
0 we’re here! We are here!
0 Because we have been here and we will eventually leave.
0 We just hope that
0 someone will remember that we have been here.
0 I think this is probably the underlying reason
0 why we are so interested in the issue of aliens.
0 Whenever we look up at the stars,
0 we may be looking forward to it. On the other side of the sky,
0 there is a pair of eyes of others looking at us who are alone.
0 Of course, hoping that aliens will exist is one question.
0 Whether aliens exist or not is another question.
0 This requires us to discuss it together.
0 Today I have shared Some hypotheses about the existence of aliens and fragrance.
0 Now it’s your turn to speak.
.